TNF Pick: Saints vs. Rams Week 16 Betting Predictions

The New Orleans Saints come to Inglewood for a Thursday Night Football showdown with the Los Angeles Rams in this critical NFC battle. The Rams beat the Commanders, 28-20, on Sunday for their fourth win in five games, evening up their record at 7-7. That goes ditto for the Saints, winners of their second in a row on Sunday, beating the Giants 24-6, also getting to 7-7. The winner of this game looks for a late-season playoff push, while the loser of this game puts themselves on the precipice of elimination.

Tough Spot for the Saints?

With a three-game stretch at home, the Saints now take to the road, where results haven’t always been great, especially when taking on teams doing well. The Rams are a team that has taken on different looks this season, but with RB Kyren Williams adding another element to a potent offense, they’re a dangerous opponent. The Saints get some optimism dealing with a Rams’ defense whose potential lags well behind the other side of the ball. Saints’ QB Derek Carr hasn’t had a great season, but he has a lot of weapons and could be getting one back this week in WR Chris Olave.

Granted, it came against the Giants and the Panthers, but allowing just 6 points in each of their last two games shows the Saints’ defense in good form coming down the home stretch of the regular season. They’re going to need it in this game. With Matthew Stafford slinging it to guys like Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and his other weapons, along with the massive production of Williams, may we see the Saints’ defense revert back to the form that saw them get their season in trouble?

It’s hard not to prefer the Rams’ attack on offense. They have spelled-out roles with guys doing what they’re supposed to be doing. Receivers catch balls, backs rush the ball, and round and round it goes. With the Saints, it’s like Olave, and maybe a few ball-catchers are the only conventional pieces, with guys like Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill in these hybrid roles that sometimes result in them being a bit invisible. I just prefer the reliability and consistency in which the Rams offense is applied.

Solid Case for the Saints on Thursday?

As opposed to a lot of road games versus teams doing as well as the Rams are doing, the Saints can benefit from a general dysfunction that sometimes surfaces with the Rams. It’s a formula that can fall flat on a given day, as is indicated by winning four of five, getting them to just the .500 mark. While the return of Williams appears to have smoothed out some inequities on the offensive side of the ball, it still needs to be a more-than-foolproof unit with the possibility of off-days and injuries constantly looming.

Even last week, we saw a two-faced LA defense, opening the game strongly and keeping the Commanders off the board in the first half. Before we knew it, the Commanders were moving the ball, even with backup Jacoby Brissett, as the Rams stayed on top due to their strong first half. They’re not always exploitable, and in some spots, the Rams’ defense has actually surpassed expectations. But the wide range of possibilities makes it so the Saints would be a major problem for the Rams this week should a bad version of the Rams “D” surface at SoFi this Thursday.

I think there may be a hidden element at play here with the Saints—an unseen level of heart and guts. This whole season is characterized by groups of wins and losses, meaning the Saints have been forced to bounce back from rough stretches multiple times this season. They’re a team no one is really talking about, a team that never captured any real heat this season, yet here they are tied atop their division after fighting back to .500 once again. It can be tougher than it seems going against teams like this that simply won’t die.

What to Expect

I think the Saints’ best hope is that a defense that has come to life the last two weeks can see the same success in a road context against an infinitely more talented offense while getting a high-end version of their own offense against an on-again/off-again Rams’ defense. The Rams’ route to success seems slightly-less problematic. They need their “D” to get a little more on-point and put together four good quarters while seeing their offense more or less do the same thing with their variety and diversity. And in the end, maybe there is more faith going with Stafford, Kupp, Nacua, Williams, and others than what’s on the other sideline. I think who is better on offense goes a long way in this spot.

Take the Home Favorite

The short week might be tough on an aging Stafford or a banged-up Aaron Donald, but they get this at home, with the Saints ending a long homestand on the short week in a faraway road game. Still, with the holidays this weekend, this might be one time when guys might prefer the Thursday spot. In any event, I think the Rams enter this week a slight cut above, as their offense has hit a groove. A New Orleans “D” that helped get the Saints season back on track will be up against it to a far higher degree this week. If the Rams’ defense doesn’t fall prey to a big offensive day from Carr, Kamara, Olave, and the rest of a still-dangerous bunch, I see them getting the win and cover at home this week. I’ll take the Rams.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Los Angeles Rams minus four points.