TNF Pick: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans

Philadelphia Eagles (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (1-5-1 SU, 3-3-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 9
Date/Time: Thursday November 3rd, 2022. 8:15PM (EST)
Where: NRG Stadium Houston, TX
TV: Prime Video

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: PHI -13.5/HOU +13.5
Moneyline: PHI -440/HOU +550
Total: 44

The Philadelphia Eagles will put their undefeated record on the line against the Houston Texans this Thursday night at NRG Stadium. Last Sunday, the Eagles flexed their muscles against the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers in a 35-13 thumping. QB Jalen Hurts tossed four touchdown passes in the blowout victory, and the majority of those passes went to WR AJ Brown, who exploded for six catches, 156 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Following the impressive performance, Philadelphia has swelled to nearly a two-touchdown favorite for this Thursday’s primetime showdown against the Texans, who are 1-5-1 SU on the season.

After getting their first victory of the season in Week 6 against the Jaguars, the Texans have dropped two straight games by falling victim to the Raiders and Titans. In last Sunday’s most recent 17-10 defeat against Tennessee, it was another ugly performance on both sides of the football. On offense, QB David Mills continued to produce pedestrian results, and emerging RB Dameon Pierce was held to just 35 rushing yards. In total, the Texans’ offense was held to just 161 yards throughout the entire game. If that wasn’t enough, the Texans’ defense gave up over 200 rushing yards to RB Derrick Henry despite the fact that Tennessee was one-dimensional on the ground with backup quarterback Malik Willis. As a result, Houston does not have a lot of positives going into this Sunday’s showdown against one of the best teams in the NFL!

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans Betting Analysis

From a handicapping perspective, the Texans’ defense has decent value in this match-up. Houston has decent talent in the secondary and have played pretty well against the pass allowing just 217 yards per game. While that number ranks about in the middle of the league in terms of pass defense statistics, Houston has been absolutely horrific against the run allowing a league-worst 186 yards per game on the ground. The consistently horrendous run defense combined with underwhelming offensive results has allowed opponents to stay on the field and sustain long drives.

The Eagles’ offense is not committed to a relentless ground game like many of Houston’s opponents. Instead, QB Jalen Hurts is going to look to spread the ball around and continue to get the ball into the hands of Brown, TE Dallas Goedert, and WR DeVonta Smith. Eagles Head Coach Nick Sirianni is not necessarily known for heavy running game plans, and RB Mile Sanders is usually limited to less than 15 touches per game. As a result, I think the Eagles will attack the better part of Houston’s defense, and while Philadelphia definitely has the match-up advantages, I think Houston will compete on the defensive side of the football better than most expect.

The real determining factor towards the betting spread relies on the Texans’ ability to score points. The total for this game is listed at just 44 points despite the Eagles laying nearly two touchdowns. Therefore, I think that solidifies my theory that this will be a highly contested game on the defensive side of the football. With that said, Houston’s inability to create any scoring production is a huge cause for concern. The Texans are averaging just 16.6 points per game and are going against a really good Philadelphia defense. With that offense becoming more predictable by the week and centered around RB Dameon Pierce, I think this will be another good opportunity for the Eagles’ defense to show their talent.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans Betting Prediction

It seems like all of the primetime match-ups this season have produced ugly low-scoring football games. With the way both defenses match up, I think that play will continue again on Thursday. As a result, I think the under is the best play for this game!
Jay’s Pick: Take the under 44