TNF Pick: Patriots vs. Steelers Prediction ATS

The New England Patriots take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football in a week 14 AFC matchup. Neither team had a good time of it last week. The Patriots, mired in their worst season in decades, fell to 2-10 with a 6-0 loss to the Chargers on Sunday. After being shut out, they have to take to the road on the short week and face a Steelers team that fell flat on Sunday, taking a 24-10 loss to the Cardinals. Who can we get behind on Thursday?

The Quarterback Conundrum

Both teams are dealing with some personnel issues at the position. New England’s aren’t injury-based. Just a matter of whether they want Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe in there. After Zappe put up a goose egg on Sunday against what had been a struggling Chargers’ defense, maybe they go back to Jones. Either way, it’s been a grind, and after losing Rhamondre Stevenson early in the game and it seems unlikely he’d be 100% on the short week, they’re running out of viable bodies. Receivers can’t get open, and the offense is really spinning its wheels.

After giving up just six points to the Chargers, the Patriots are hoping their “D” can quell a Pittsburgh offense that looked horrible on Sunday. In a division race, to lose by 14 to a 2-10 Cardinals team is a tough pill to swallow this late in the season. Kenny Pickett went down again at quarterback, with Mitchell Trubisky stepping into the role and getting the Steelers’ only TD on the day. It’s actually questionable at this point whether Pickett is the better option, so maybe the Steelers can keep things together without him for the time being.

Steelers: A Tricky Team to Assess

On one hand, they’re 7-5 in a division race with a lot to play for. People should be worried about winning teams with a lot of apparent problems since what they’re doing right is more off-the-radar. For all their issues with QB play, they’re still doing better than a lot of teams that were more fancied heading into this season. That defense can change the complexion of games, and when they’re stout and making plays left and right, they can ride that aspect of the team to victory. But alas, there is a flip side to that coin.

The Steelers have pretty good skill players, a decent 1-2 running back punch with Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, receivers George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, and a good tight end in Pat Freiermuth. But with the QB play often in the toilet, they can sometimes extract an astonishingly low amount of production. And don’t expect it to ever follow any script. Against an exploitable Arizona defense on Sunday, they could get almost nothing going on offense. This week, it looks like a good spot, facing a dilapidated New England squad that couldn’t even hit the scoreboard last week, taking on this home-Steelers defense. Surely, the offense can do enough, ride their defense, and get the win, right? It’s just that for a 7-5 team, this group can descend to a pretty low level on a given week.

What to Expect

Against a Cardinals team that wasn’t doing well on offense, the Steelers weren’t that good last week, giving up production to RB James Conner and not getting to QB Kyler Murray the way they would have liked. In an important game in a winnable spot at home, it was the kind of showing that should raise some alarms about their viability down the stretch. Do they make a push or fade into the night? Still, you’d have to figure this is a get-well spot for the Pittsburgh defense and this is where we see guys like TJ Watt deliver against a New England offense that is really running a minor-league cast of players out there right now. Seldom will you ever see an NFL offense with nobody getting open, like what we saw on Sunday. When faded, Ezekiel Elliott is clearly the standout talent in a group, it’s not a good sign.

New England, for how far they’ve fallen, can still play defense. And when the opposing offense is a compromised Steelers group capable of plummeting to low depths, that’s still something that can resonate. However good you might feel about Pittsburgh heading into this Thursday Night spot, this facet still looms as a major obstacle to success. Sure, they’re urgent and maybe irritated and eager to atone for last week’s failings. But you still need to cover a number with an offense where points can be precious. This total is almost unheard of, lingering just above 30 points. It puts Pittsburgh in a position where if New England puts a couple of scores up there, they’re going to be behind the 8-ball.

Take the Points

Not that a position on Pittsburgh can’t work out here, as the Patriots might just be broken at this point. But with all the games this week where you have a chance to back a home team laying points, why pick this one? Sure, the Patriots seem prime to be plucked, and they’ve been a disaster from a betting stance, but it’s asking a lot of a Pittsburgh defense to be almost perfect, as their own offense is not in the best matchup, with Trubisky in there and whatever mistakes can ensue from that against a Pats “D” that can still capitalize on miscues. Taking the Pats at this point isn’t easy, but in what looks like a defensive grind on Thursday, I suspect they creep in under this number. I’ll take the Patriots.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New England Patriots plus 6 points.