TNF Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-3 SU, 1-4-1 ATS)

Week 7 NFL

Date/Time: Thursday, October 19, 2023, at 8:15 PM EDT

Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

TV: Prime Video

Betting Odds

Point Spread: JAC +1 / NO -1 (Bovada – Generous bonuses and INCREDIBLE live betting!) 

Money Line: JAC +105, NO -125

Over/Under Total: 40.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars come to the Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football. On Sunday, the Jaguars scored their second win over the Colts this season, with a 37-20 victory, giving them their third straight win. They now take to the road again for a Week 7 showdown against a Saints team that fell short on Sunday, losing on the road to the Texans, 20-13, dropping to 3-3 on the season. Who can get it done for us on TNF in the Superdome to help get our week off to a fast start? Let’s break it down!

Tough Stretch for the Jaguars

I don’t want to read too much into it, especially after the Jags looked so vital on both sides of the ball last week in a thorough win over Indy. They look good. Lawrence is connecting well with his weapons; their run-game is clicking with Travis Etienne, and their defense is getting back to their prime form as a stout and playmaking unit. But we see them coming into the Superdome out of conference, the two London games in a row, and still not getting a bye-week until after their game after this against Pittsburgh. It’s still pretty early in the season, and the Jags are relatively healthy, but no team has been put through the ringer in terms of playing away from home like Jacksonville has this season, and you wonder if they might start dragging a bit as they lead up to their bye-week.

Still, after a 1-2 start to the season that had some people worried, this stretch has shown the Jaguars getting things cooking and doing it earlier than they did last season when they won a bunch of games in a row to get in the playoffs, even winning a postseason game. The offense is locked in role-wise, with Etienne getting a lot of work, while Lawrence looks for pass-catchers Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and a collection of other contributors. What might really bring it together is an improved defense that is coming into its own. Even the 20 points they allowed to the Colts happened with Jacksonville playing with a big lead. Their defense did well the previous week against Buffalo, as well, also holding Atlanta to 7 points the week before that. Darious Williams and Andre Cisco each already have three picks, while Josh Allen is terrorizing opposing quarterbacks with 7 sacks on the season. Weary bones or not, they’re a team starting to form a real identity on that side of the ball.

Matchup Issues for the Saints This Week?

On one hand, it was good for the Saints to see a previously banged-up Derek Carr go for 353 yards through the air on Sunday, as the Saints have failed to see much of a prolific air-game early on this season. They have Alvin Kamara back in there to go along with talented receivers like Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, and some nice other weapons, as well. But to come up with just 13 points was a disappointment, especially against the Houston defense. They had that 34-0 walloping of the Pats a few games ago, but in their other five games, they’ve scored 75 combined points. It’s just not a befitting level of production for all the weaponry they possess.

Still, I wouldn’t rush to judgment on the Saints just yet. Having played at home just once since week one, maybe their schedule and some personnel setbacks with Carr and others have cost them a chance to really zoom out of the starting gates. A 3-3 record for what they’ve had to face isn’t really too shabby. And we see that even with an offense not always carrying its share of the load, the Saints’ defense can still be a factor, and in 6 games this season, they’re allowing an average of under 15 points a game. They haven’t been as impactful as the Jaguars’ defense from a playmaking perspective, but they’re a stout unit that especially needs to be respected at home in a context such as this.

One can definitely imagine a less-than-effervescent offensive showing from the Jags this week. They’re out of their wheelhouse and out of conference, with a roster of guys, many of whom have never even played in the Superdome. The Saints are going to need to bank on their defense and put a serious dent into Lawrence, his weapons, and the production that offense can create. They also need their own offense to start becoming more consistent with their production while also seeing that become more linear with actual point-scoring. They can’t put up 430 yards of offense and get just one TD in a game like this like what happened last week. They’re going to need to see some stars align—a defense that should be tested to a greater degree than it has recently, along with an offense that will need to put some things together against this tough and difference-making Jacksonville defense.

Take the Small Home Favorite

I think being at home will lead to a game that is more themed to the Saints’ liking. I think a slightly-gimpy Trevor Lawrence doesn’t help the Jaguars’ cause this week, either. I see a game where points might be precious, as suggested by the total barely being over 40 points. In a game that’s a grind like this, I think some of the Jags’ wear and tear accumulated over the last several weeks could begin to accumulate. I see a little surge on both sides of the ball in the second half being enough to get the Saints across the finish line a nose ahead. I’ll take the Saints.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New Orleans Saints minus 1 point.