TNF Pick: Broncos vs. Chiefs Best Bet

Denver Broncos (1-4 SU, 0-4-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)

Week 6 NFL

Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, October 12, 2023 at 8:15PM EDT

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

TV: Prime Video

Betting Odds

Point Spread: DEN +10/KC -10 (Bovada – 75% Crypto Bonus! BEST live wagering platform by far!)

Money Line: Broncs +390, Chiefs -550

Over/Under Total: 50

The Denver Broncos come to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC West battle on Thursday Night Football. Last Sunday, the Broncos fell to 1-4 and continued their run of non-covers, falling to the Jets, 31-21. They now have to turn around on the short week in a tough matchup, albeit against a familiar foe. On Sunday, Kansas City overcame a tough challenge by the Vikings, coming out on top in a nice 27-20 road win. Who will emerge with the cover for us in this divisional matchup on TNF?

Tough Scene for the Broncos

Two weeks ago, Denver overcame a 28-7 deficit to beat the Bears, 31-28. It’s really their lone bright spot of the season and it coming against a team on a 14-game losing streak doesn’t sweeten the equation much. Losses to the Raiders, Commanders, and Jets don’t paint a nice picture, either, as all those teams are below .500. Then you throw the 70-20 loss to the Dolphins in there and it has Denver looking like a dumpster fire heading into week six. Last Sunday saw more of the same. That putrid Denver “D” allowed 177 yards rushing to Breece Hall and all rushing attacks are now thriving against this bunch. Wilson is moving the ball a little, but his supposed two top receivers were invisible on Sunday, with Courtland Sutton catching one ball for 13 yards.

It was thought that last year was maybe an aberration for Russell Wilson and they’d either get better or, worse case scenario, stay the same. The prospects of them getting worse weren’t really discussed, but it is what has taken place. Sean Payton hasn’t been able to hit the ground running and while they could technically turn it around, it’s probably hard for certain realities to not be setting in on them around this time, namely that this is already looking like a bleak situation just five games into the season. For people to be in any kind of headspace to plunk money down on the Broncos now, the books are going to have start making it extra-tantalizing.

Denver’s Betting Appeal

Having not covered a spread all season, the betting public is going to be abandoning ship on Denver in a serious way and we might see the books backlash too far the other direction. It’s almost impossible at this point to find people who are going to be overrating Denver. The morale is so low that the only potential mistake that can really be made at this point in how one perceives the Broncos is to underrate them. But the knowledge of that means there might be an edge in backing Denver in the wake of this horrific start, something no one really wants to do. It’s just that the Broncos are in a unique position where the public morale is so low that value might begin to develop. On one sideline, you have a popular Super Bowl champion where no carrots need to be dangled to induce betting interest. On the other sideline is a team where only those with the strongest constitutions can even stomach thinking about taking them as a side. Being on the short week and on the road only makes it that much tougher.

Difficulty Ahead for KC This Week?

While it’s hard to say the Chiefs’ bottom-line results have suffered, as they are defending Bowl champions, they are more subdued at times in the way they go about getting a win. Last season, they suffered ATS in a big way and three of their four wins this season are one-score affairs. While not having a star-studded receiver crew and other aspects of their offense that lack star-power hasn’t really cost them, it has put a dent in their appeal-factor when they’re favorites laying a bunch of points. We no longer see them with their foot on the gas when riding a nice lead. It’s like an old boxing champion who was knocking ‘em all dead on his way up and when first becoming champ, but after experiencing a ton of success, starts to coast more and expend less. The prospects of Travis Kelce not being in there only enhances that, as he left the last game with a leg injury.

Extolling the virtues of the Chiefs in relation to the Broncos does us no real good here. They’re the champions, having not failed to get to at least the conference title game in five years. The Broncos are a mess and the only question is whether they find more layers of bedrock to plummet through. From a football standpoint, the Broncos are just not going to stack up well. And it’s not going to help to pretend there are football-related aspects that foster optimism for the Broncos. But when you combine a bunch of points, a Denver offense that is still sporadically-feisty, and a Chiefs’ team that is so secure in their position that they’re not above showing some regular-season apathy, the equation starts looking a touch better.

Take the Points

It’s not an easy stand to take. The one redeeming part of the Broncos through all this is Russell Wilson managing to extract something out of this offense, at least coming up with 105 points in the last four games. They’re also not likely to elicit the most urgency from Kansas City. While basing a pick on the size of the spread and possible apathy from the opponent, as opposed to any actual football reasons, isn’t a very positive approach, I think there’s some decent value on Denver this week that might even improve a bit before game time. I’ll take the Broncos.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 10 points.