Titans vs. Texans: Week 12 Point Spread Prediction

Current NFL Betting Lines and Odds

AFC South Division Battle: Playoff Contender vs Rebuilding Squad

One team chasing a division title meets another team playing out the string when the 7-4 Texans host the 2-8 Titans for an AFC South bout Sunday afternoon in Houston.

The Texans continue to experience success with their second-year head coach and second-year starting quarterback. The Titans, on the other hand, are experiencing tough times under their first-year head coach and with their own second-year QB.

Line Movement and Opening Odds Analysis

This week’s NFL betting market opened Houston at -8.5 over Tennessee, with an O/U of right around 42. Early betting action edged the Texans to -9.

Tennessee Titans Team Analysis: Struggling Squad Seeks Momentum

Tennessee fell to 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS over its last seven games by losing at home to Minnesota last Sunday 23-13. The Titans, catching six points as home dogs, scored the first three points of the game. But they gave up the next 16 and could not recover.

Tennessee got out-gained by the Vikings 318-294. However, 98 of the Titans’ yards came on one play. Tennessee also committed 91 yards worth of penalties.

The Titans are now 0-6 both SU and ATS this season in games young Will Levis took most of the snaps at QB, averaging 16 PPG.

Two weeks ago Tennessee gave the Chargers a good game but lost 27-17 and came up short ATS at +8.

At 2-8 overall the Titans are playing for the future, under a first-year head coach and with a young starting QB.

Houston Texans Analysis: Division Leaders Look to Build on Momentum

Meanwhile Houston just halted a two-game losing skid with a 34-10 victory at hapless Dallas Monday night. The Texans, favored at -7, scored the first 14 points of the game and led 17-10 at the half. Houston then pulled away from there, adding to the Cowboys’ mounting miseries.

The Texans, with RB Mixon breaking loose, out-rushed Dallas 141-64.

So Houston has out-gained nine of its 11 opponents this season and out-rushed four of its last six foes.

The Texans started 6-2 this season, with a win over Buffalo, then lost back-to-back games to the Jets and Lions, that last one a heartbreaker after leading almost the entire game. So Monday night’s performance came at a good time.

At 7-4 overall Houston leads the AFC South by two games over the 5-6 Colts.

On the injury front the Texans list five defensive starters as questionable for Sunday.

Head-to-Head History and Trends

Houston owns a three-game winning streak on Tennessee, going 3-0 ATS along the way. Last year the Texans swept the two games from the Titans by scores of 19-16 in overtime and 26-3.

Houston out-rushed Tennessee in those two games last year by an average of 130-60.

Common Opponents and Season Performance

These teams have played eight common opponents this season, members of the AFC South and East and the NFC North. Houston played those foes to 5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, Tennessee to 1-7 SU, 0-7-1 ATS.

Key NFL Betting Trends

• Home teams are 83-78 SU, 73-86 ATS this season.
• Favorites are 116-50 SU, 88-76 ATS.
• Houston ranks 5th in the League in turnover margin at +8; Tennessee ranks 30th at -11.
• Teams that win the turnover battle this season are 91-31 SU, 87-33 ATS.

Over/Under Analysis and Trends

• The overs are 5-4 in Titans games this season, averaging 43 total points.
• The unders are 7-3 in Texans games, averaging 45 points.
• The unders are 4-0 over the last four meetings between these teams.
• Overs are 84-81 in the NFL this season.

Expert Betting Analysis and Pick

Almost all factors point toward Houston, which is just the better team in this match-up. However, playing at home means that spread is probably inflated by a field goal or so. The Texans are playing close games this season; eight of 11 decided by one score. Meanwhile, Tennessee owns the No. 2 defense in the League. If the Titans offense could just produce 23 points they might win this game outright. We won’t call for the upset but we’ll take Tennessee plus the points.