Titans vs. Panthers Pick 11/3/19

Tennessee Titans (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)
NFL Week 9 Date/Time: Sunday November 3rd, 2019. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, N.C.
TV: CBS

Point Spread:TEN +3.5/CAR -3.5 (Best odds)
Over/Under Total: 41.5

The Carolina Panthers had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with an embarrassing 51-13 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Prior to the game, Head Coach Ron Rivera made the decision to start quarterback Kyle Allen over Cam Newton, who was returning from injury. Allen had led the team to 4 straight wins but was overwhelmed by the 49ers defense resulting in an afternoon that featured three interceptions. Still, coach Ron Rivera has doubled down with his young quarterback and Allen will start again this week when the Panthers look to rebound against the Tennessee Titans inside Bank of America Stadium.

The Tennessee Titans have also received a boost on the offensive side of the football in the form of a backup quarterback. After several weeks of poor performances from quarterback Marcus Mariota, Head Coach Mike Vrabel turned to former Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and the decision has proved successful. Tannehill has played well, completing 73% of his passes for 649 yards with five touchdowns and two picks through 2.5 games. Now instead of a one-dimensional running threat, the Titans’ offense has holistically improved with 50 combined points scored in the last two weeks with wins over the Chargers and Buccaneers.

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Quarterback controversies roll into Charlotte

Both the Titans and the Panthers are in the midst of quarterback controversies. Despite both backups performing well, everyone knows that the leash is short for both guys. I am personally somewhat surprised to see Rivera go back to Allen this week with Cam healthy. However, another disastrous start could lead to a mid-game change behind center. Fortunately for Panthers fans, I believe this is an excellent bounce-back opportunity. The Titans are solid defensively, but they are beatable through the air. Tennessee currently ranks 16th in the NFL, allowing 239 yards per game. Rest assured, Carolina will use running back Christian McCaffrey often out of the backfield and then attempt to work the ball downfield to receivers Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore. The Panthers typical offensive schemes should work well in this game as long as Allen protects the football.

Titans Offense vs. Panthers Defense

I mentioned earlier that Ryan Tannehill has breathed life back into this Titans offense over the last few weeks. However, the truth of the matter is that this Sunday’s match-up against the Panthers will be an uphill battle. The Panthers are solid against the run, which should make things difficult for the focal point of the Titans offense around Derrick Henry. Furthermore, the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL, allowing just 215 yards per game through the air. Perhaps the biggest concern is the health of the defense. Linebacker Shaq Thompson, safety Eric Reid, DT Gerald McCoy, and Vernon Butler all showed up on the injury report this week with mild injuries.

The injuries described above are worth monitoring as the week progresses. As it currently stands, the Panthers are expecting everyone to play barring any late-week setbacks. With those thoughts in mind, I continue to like the way the Panthers’ defense matches up in this battle at Bank of America Stadium. Along with the strong defensive stats that I alluded to earlier, the Panthers also lead the NFL in pressure rate and sacks averaging 4.3 per game. Those are important statistics because Tannehill has historically struggled under pressure. If the Panthers can maintain their pressure rate, this should be a situation where they can make things difficult for the Titans new quarterback.

Titans vs. Panthers betting trends

The Titans have trended around the .500 mark for the majority of their games going back to 2018, which do not correlate to any notable trends. The Titans are 5-1 ATS against NFC South opponents in their last six meetings and have hit the ‘under’ in 5 of their last seven games. Meanwhile, Carolina has covered the mark in 4 of their last five games and are 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games against AFC South opponents. The total has hit the ‘over’ mark in four of the last five games for Carolina.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Panthers -3.5