Thursday Night Football: Broncos vs. Chargers ATS Prediction

Denver Broncos (9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS)
NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, December 18, 2024 at 8:15PM EST
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: Prime Video

The Denver Broncos come to SoFi Stadium for a week 16 AFC West showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football. It’s a critical divisional game for a pair of teams who are angling for a playoff appearance this season. Denver at 9-5 looks good for that to happen, their 31-13 win over Indy on Sunday helping their cause. The Chargers, however, have hit a rough patch after losing their second in a row with an unsightly 40-17 loss to Tampa at home on Sunday. At 8-6, they’d like to avoid a situation where they have to win games and get help from others to get into the postseason. It’s a critical get-right spot for the Bolts this week. Who should we back in this divisional Thursday Night Football spot?

Does First Game Matter?

Frankly, it might not. These teams met in week six, with the Chargers going into Denver and getting the 23-16 win. The Chargers ran the ball well, something they haven’t been able to continue doing. And their defense was big on the day, another area of the team where returns have been diminishing. Meanwhile, a Chargers’ defense that day benefitted from playing a version of the Denver offense that hadn’t yet hit its stride. Since that first game between these two teams, Denver has gone 6-2, generally seeing their offense play well other than for a few spots. The Chargers were really cooking then—in a midst of a patch where they won five of six games. This week, the Broncos are facing a team that is coming off an ugly loss and has dropped three of four.

Are the Chargers OK?

It’s only fair to wonder after getting beaten so badly at home by the Bucs. Getting nipped by the Chiefs and the Ravens, their other two recent losses, are a little more explainable. A defense that was doing fantastic against some opponents with less-than-thrilling offenses has shown its weaknesses over the course of some more-recent games. I wouldn’t go so far as to call them “exposed,” as they are still playing well in spots, but it’s not going to be that shutdown unit that makes every other issue on the team OK. You start to wonder how far tough and gritty QB Justin Herbert can take an offense that has been hit by injuries and wasn’t that good to start.

Just last week, we continued seeing what having a dearth of offensive star-power can become. Against a Tampa team stocked with difference-making backs and receivers, the Chargers tried to answer, but with Gus Edwards leading the way in the backfield and a pass-catching corps comprised of guys like Quintin Johnston, Stone Smartt, and Josh Palmer, there’s only so much you can do. Ladd McConkey got back on the field and scored a TD. He could be somebody one day. But in games like this, having some pertinent individual pieces either in the backfield or lining up on the outside can go a long way.

Challenges for Denver

This Chargers’ team is a bit backed up now against a wall and I’d expect some urgency to play a role, as coming out of this two-week homestand without a win would be a crippling development for a team that did a lot of good things to get to 8-4 through their first 12 games in their first season under Jim Harbaugh. And Denver, while vastly improved on offense, can’t match what Tampa was able to throw at the Bolts last week. First off, like the Chargers, they’re not going to subdue opposing defenses with a run-game, despite Denver quarterback Bo Nix being nifty with his feet. Receiver Courtland Sutton gives the Broncos a number-one guy the Bolts don’t yet have. There is a large cast of different weapons of different abilities the Broncos can wield on a defense that has shown more vulnerability in the last month.

The Broncos are still a young team finding their way in this league. As we saw last week, Nix is still a work-in-progress, with three picks on the day. But they still beat a desperate Colts team by 18, even with that happening. Their defense is very opportunistic, and the five turnovers they secured against Indy were key to getting the big win. You’re noticing when one aspect of the team sputters, the rest of the team binds together to bridge the gap. It’s easy to low-rate the Broncos. It’s hard to really explain how they’ve managed to win 9 of their last 12 games. Sometimes, those are the teams where you need to be really careful when betting on them, and Denver has shown that to be the case with a sterling 11-3 record against the spread.

Take the Points

I don’t question whether Harbaugh can help lift the Chargers from this most recent funk they find themselves in at the moment. There’s still a part of you that wonders if they hit a wall at a really inopportune time. Whether it’s the lack of shutdown defensive play, they can no longer rely upon or an offense that hasn’t really developed an identity, these things are coming at a higher price as the stakes go up with the season winding down. I see a better-functioning Broncos team being right in the mix for this one, as they cover the spread on Thursday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 3 points.