Thursday Night Football Battle: Bears vs. Commanders – Expert Betting Analysis

Week 5 NFL

Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, October 13, 2022 at 8:15PM EDT

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

TV: Prime Video

Point Spread: WAS +1/CHI -1 (Bovada)

Over/Under Total: 38.5

The Chicago Bears make the trip east to battle the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football in this NFC showdown. Neither team has been in good form, especially the Bears, nursing an ugly 14-game losing streak dating back to last season. It seemed they were poised to end that losing stretch last week, taking a 28-7 lead on the Denver Broncos on Sunday, before losing, 31-28. They now face the tough task of turning around on the short week to go on the road. The Commanders, however, lost their second in a row after a 2-0 start, but were still respectable in losing to the Eagles, 34-31, in overtime. Who can get it done in this Thursday Night Football spot?

Chicago in Peril?

With the giant losing streak and no covers this season, overall morale on the Bears has to be pretty low. They had a Denver team completely on the ropes, the same team coming off a 50-point smashing. After Denver took a 7-0 lead, Chicago getting on top 28-7 looked to have the Broncos packing it in and kudos to them for reversing form like that, but it really reflects poorly on the Bears. The sad part of it for them is they were actually seeing some things start to click, namely a rare aerial bonanza from QB Justin Fields, who threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns, getting a big game from DJ Moore and two TDs from Cole Kmet. A defense that had been getting torched was playing well for a half-plus, but before long they came undone and even the beleaguered Broncos were able to string together scoring drives.

Getting both sides of the ball to play capably for the Bears seems like asking a lot. Giving up 137 points in four games is rough and while the Chiefs is understandable, the other three teams being the Broncos, Packers, and Buccaneers paints an ugly picture. They might catch a little relief here with a Washington offense that doesn’t always fire, led by rookie QB Sam Howell, but the Commanders did just put 31 up against that Philly defense and you can’t really take anything for granted with this Chicago “D” right now.

Washington’s Appeal as a Betting Choice

The Commanders are not a team that’s going to get anyone excited. They have a kind of dull vibe to them and they don’t naturally elicit a lot of positive feelings as a betting favorite laying this many points. Still, 2-2 is pretty good, with them having put themselves in a good spot to win against the Eagles on Sunday, as they did cover the spread by a fairly-large margin. After beating the Cardinals and Broncos, they were smashed by the Bills, their only real bad showing of the season. With 290 yards passing and some nice runs, Howell really wasn’t that bad on Sunday in a tough spot. He should congeal better with his offensive tools with the passage of time. They have some commendable depth on the ground and through the air, though certain guys disappear and they have yet to really tap into any substantial big-play ability.

This still has to be considered a big game for Howell, who isn’t going to be given many spots more advantageous than a home-game against a Chicago “D” that has shown itself to be duck soup even for more middling offenses. Maligned by many with some shaky early-season sequences, he should be gaining confidence and if anything in this situation, it is the Bears who should be concerned about Howell’s burgeoning dual-threat talent, in addition to guys who can do serious damage in this context, like RB Brian Robinson, along with receivers Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, and a gaggle of other contributors.

Since week one where they allowed 16 points to the Cardinals, however, the Commanders have yielded 104 points. Playing the Bills and Eagles in succession helps paint a bad picture, but we’re still not seeing a Washington defense being either stout of disruptive. Outside of Montez Sweat, there’s not a ton of big plays being made. And while the sample size is small, the last several weeks show them to be in poor form late in games, which is not a pattern they want to see begin to develop.

What to Expect

Fields’ showing last week, albeit in losing fashion and against a Denver defense that just gave up a comical amount of offense, throws a new light on this matchup. It’s not clear how much one wants to account for that, given the performances that preceded it and the reduced context in which it surfaced. Still, it’s unclear why a Chicago offense that finally showed signs of life couldn’t continue that in this spot. But can they get that to surface, in addition to finding a missing-in-action defense to materialize? It’s been a long time since they’ve been able to sync up those two things.

Take the Home Favorite

A team just can’t lose forever and maybe last week is a sign of Chicago ending this run of defeats. It’s not really the worst spot, as the Commanders are not immune to putting forth their own clunkers from time to time. Washington is also on the short week after a draining overtime game, not that Chicago has wind in their sails blowing a 28-7 lead and getting nipped at the wire against the Broncos. I sense the Washington defense will show some better form this week against a non-elite offense, with Howell and his weapons pecking away for a win and a cover at home on TNF.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Washington Commanders minus 6.5 points. Bankroll need a boost? Deposit $100 and get $100 FREE when you use promo code PREDICTEM at BetUS Sportsbook! (This deal is actually good for all the way up to $500 if you want more bonus cash!)