Texans vs. Ravens Pick: Take the Points

The Houston Texans come to M&T Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs on Saturday. Houston earned this spot by defeating Cleveland in the Wild Card round in a 45-14 smashing that underlined how dangerous they can be. They will need that now coming in to face the top seed in the AFC—the Baltimore Ravens. Recipients of a first-round bye on the basis of being the top seed, they look for Lamar Jackson and this Ravens team to start registering some postseason success and it starts with a tough test this week.

The Power of Momentum

For Houston, it really came down to getting star rookie quarterback CJ Stroud back in the mix. With him, they were able to polish off their last two opponents to win the division before exacting revenge on a Browns team that had just beaten them a few short weeks before. A lot of people wrote the Texans off when Stroud went down injured, but he was able to get back in there, finish strong, before they really showed their teeth in a 31-point playoff win. The Ravens locked up the top seed in the conference and rested a ton of guys in a week 18 loss. Prior to that, the Ravens had won six straight and 10 of 11, so it’s not like they don’t have a head of steam coming into this.

Based on results, it’s hard to say the Texans have more momentum. They’ve won less games, the Ravens have scored the more eye-popping wins, and that form allows them to be at home for this matchup. But sometimes, you get these scrappy teams like the Texans who heat up at just the right time. And when taking on a one-seed that phoned it in on week 18 and got the wild card round-off, you wonder if it can register a little differently. Will the Ravens be a little rusty? Will they not hit the ground running this week? That angle obviously doesn’t always work, with the one-seed oftentimes putting all that rusty-talk to sleep, and they bludgeon their upstart opponents.

Matchup Issues for Houston

They’re going against a very tough Baltimore defense at home, a rematch from a week one battle where the Texans were beaten 25-9. With that coming so early on in the season and it being Stroud’s first game, I’m not sure how much that result even matters. Last week’s swollen point-total for Houston could be a bit misleading, with Joe Flacco almost throwing as much TD passes to Houston as Stroud was. Stroud is the real deal, but in this context, is this where not having a pass-catching crew at full power will really cost them? Is this a spot where they can count on Devin Singletary coming out of the backfield against this fearsome Baltimore defensive front? It’s just that before when Houston was really humming along, there was Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz all having big games. Now Dell is out, Brown has been hurt and now is out of action, and they’re left with Collins, Schultz, and whoever can step up on a given day, with it being backup TE Brevin Jordan last week with a long TD reception.

I think Houston backers should brace for the possibility that what has been working recently might not go over so swimmingly this week. They were able to get over the hump against Tennessee and Indy to close the season, also taking it to a Cleveland defense last week that really isn’t as good on the road as they are at home. Now, they go into Baltimore to battle a rested home-Ravens “D,” a group that has allowed more than 20 points just twice in their last nine games. And with a team like Houston, not being at full-power could cost them, as could the overall limitations of their run-game.

Hope for the Texans

Looking at it this way hasn’t really gotten anyone anywhere, but maybe it can take hold more in the playoffs, and that’s concerning what might appear to be a lack of firepower on the Ravens’ offense. We all know what Lamar Jackson can do at this point and the full scope of his powers. But we also see no skill player on this team really having a big season. Sure, when you combine Jackson with RB Gus Edwards, add in pieces like Justice Hill, and boast of Zay Flowers, TE Isaiah Likely, WR Odell Beckham, and others, it somehow works out. They find a way, as 13 wins and the top seed in the playoffs would attest. And maybe you should be more-worried about 13-win teams where no player has even gained 900 yards. Maybe it shows a certain overall team strength. It also makes them a little less scary, perhaps, as we enter the more difficult context of divisional playoff football.

Take the Points

In a weird year where the hierarchy is somewhat murky, I don’t think it’s out of line to forecast a competitive game in this spot. There’s something about the energy of the Texans, whether it’s their rookie standout QB, an energetic and successful rookie head coach in DeMeco Ryans, or just the general pep, you see with this team, that makes it hard to discount them. It’s a tough spot, but with a big number, I suspect the Texans slide in there and cover the spread this week in Baltimore. I’m taking the Texans in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Houston Texans plus 8.5 points.