Texans vs. Packers Best Bet | NFL Week 7 Pick
Houston Texans (5-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
When: 1 PM ET Sunday, Oct. 20
Where: Lambeau Field
TV: CBS
NFL Betting Odds
- Spread: Hou +2.5 / GB -2.5
- Moneyline: Texans +125 / Pack -150
- Over/Under: 47.5
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In one of the better non-conference matchups of the early NFL season, the 5-1 Houston Texans head north to play the 4-2 Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Both teams have extended their winning runs from last season, with the Texans winning 12 of their last 16 games and the Packers winning 10 of their last 14. The betting line indicates a close game, and with two talented young quarterbacks, this one should be a fun watch.
NFL Betting Odds Movement
The NFL Week 7 betting market opened with Green Bay at -2.5 and an O/U of 47. Both figures have remained steady through early betting action.
Texans Betting Notes
Houston is 5-1 this season, marking its best start since 2012, after winning convincingly at New England last Sunday, 41-21. The Texans were favored by -6.5 against a Patriots team starting a rookie QB and took control early, scoring touchdowns on their first two possessions and leading 14-7 at the half. The Texans then scored the first 13 points of the second half and cruised to the win.
With Joe Mixon back at running back, Houston out-rushed New England 192-82 and won the turnover battle 4-1, creating a +14 points differential. On the prop board, Houston QB C.J. Stroud threw for 192 yards, falling short of his passing total of 237.5, but his three touchdown passes paid off at +275. Mixon ran for 102 yards, surpassing his rushing total of 50.5, and his two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving) paid +550.
A month ago, Houston suffered a 34-7 loss at Minnesota but has since rallied with wins over Jacksonville (24-20), Buffalo (23-20 at the buzzer), and New England. At 5-1, the Texans currently sit in the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoff standings.
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Green Bay Packers Breakdown
Green Bay is 4-2 after a dominant 34-13 win over Arizona last Sunday. Favored by -5.5, the Packers scored on four of their first five possessions, jumped to a 24-0 lead in the second quarter, and coasted to victory. Green Bay out-gained the Cardinals 437-303, out-rushed them 179-89, and controlled time of possession, holding the ball for over 37 minutes.
On the prop board, Packers QB Jordan Love threw for 258 yards, missing his passing total of 258.5 by just half a yard, but his four touchdown passes paid off at +650. Wide receiver Romeo Doubs, who was in the doghouse two weeks ago, caught two touchdowns, paying +1100. Green Bay started the season with a tough loss to Philadelphia but has since gone 4-1 both straight up and against the spread, including two wins with a backup quarterback.
At 4-2, the Packers would currently occupy the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoff standings.
Key Injuries
Houston will be without wide receiver Nico Collins, who still leads the league in receiving yards despite missing last week’s game. The Texans also have left tackle Laremy Tunsil and five defensive starters listed as questionable for Sunday. On the other side, Green Bay lists wide receivers Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks, along with tight end Tucker Kraft, as questionable. Bettors should check the latest injury updates before placing their bets.
Key Stats and Trends
- Houston is out-rushing opponents by an average of 119-114 yards per game.
- Green Bay is out-rushing opponents by an average of 167-110 yards per game.
- Teams that win the ground battle in the NFL this season are 68-24 SU and 64-27 ATS.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 42-47 SU and 36-52 ATS this season.
- Favorites are 61-31 SU and 49-42 ATS this season.
- Teams that score first are 56-36 SU and 60-31 ATS. Green Bay has scored first in five of its six games this season.
Totals Report
- Unders are 4-2 in Texans games this season, which are averaging 46 total points.
- Overs are 3-2 in Packers games, which are averaging 47 total points.
- After going 10-4 last week, overs are 47-44 in the NFL this season.
Touchdown Props
- Houston TE Dalton Schultz, who has 30 targets but no touchdowns, is +280 to score one TD and +2100 to score two.
- Green Bay RB Patrick Wilson, who produced 73 yards from scrimmage last week, is +350 to score one TD and +2600 to score two.
Free NFL Betting Pick
We expect Green Bay to win the ground battle in this game. Even though Joe Mixon is back for Houston, the Packers have shown a stronger commitment to the run. Houston may have the slightly better defense, but Green Bay’s defense has been opportunistic, forcing 17 takeaways this season compared to Houston’s seven. Also, this will be the Texans’ first game on grass this season, which may impact their performance. We’ll play the Packers to cover the short spread at home.
