Texans vs. Jets Prediction: Can Houston Stay Hot on TNF?

Houston Texans (6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS)

NFL Football Week 9

Date/Time: Sunday, October 31, 2024 at 8:15PM EDT

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

TV: Prime Video

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The Houston Texans come to MetLife Stadium for a Thursday Night Football showdown with the New York Jets. The Texans were able to maneuver their way to a close 23-20 win over the Colts on Sunday, moving their record to 6-2 and atoning for a loss the previous week to the Packers. They now turn around on the short week to take to the road against a struggling Jets team that again saw things get away from them on Sunday, losing to the Patriots, 25-22. Again, things didn’t go their way late-game, with New England scoring a late-fourth quarter TD to notch the divisional win. Who should we get behind on Thursday?

State of the Jets

While I suspect we’re still a ways off before the Jets assume a role of total resignation, morale can’t be high. The urgency has not resonated, as their head coach was fired and Davante Adams was traded for, with three straight losses. And with last week being to the Patriots, it’s going to be difficult to rationalize this one. At 2-6, a turnaround of massive proportions is required to save the season, and it just doesn’t look like it’s in the cards.

There are things the team can do well, but it comes in spots and is never accompanied by other things coming together. RB Breece Hall will shine in spots, the defense can deliver, and even Aaron Rodgers will show flashes here and there. But in terms of getting it together, those sequences have come few and far between this year. You could even question Rodgers’ attitude at this point since most of the headlines he’s making lately have to do with everything but his doing well in a football game. He seems to be enveloped in negativity. That one-two punch at wide receiver with Adams and Garrett Wilson, which on paper should be one of the league’s best, is ho-hum. You could say that about this team’s whole roster, which, through eightht games, has yielded about as little success as possible.

Still, it’s not an easy spot for Houston coming off a tough and close divisional game on Sunday, having to pick up on the short week and come into East Rutherford. Houston deserves credit for a 6-2 start to the season, dealing with a lot of injuries along the way. Most of their wins are by extremely close margins, and while that plays off well against a team in the Jets that has done the opposite this season, I wouldn’t quite consider this matchup as being totally out of range for the Jets. Despite their record, we’re not really seeing the same explosive Houston offense that we saw at times last season, though their defense probably has upgraded a notch since then.

Making a Case for the Jets

With a little buffer in the AFC South and the knowledge that they’re facing a weak team, could we see a little letdown spot from the Texans this week on the road? On Sunday, even with Indy getting shaky quarterback play and not being known as a good defense, they barely edged them out, and that was the second time this season that they had been against that Colts team. And while their defense has to take some of the credit, they benefitted in other games from playing offenses that either weren’t that strong or were having pronounced bad days. And in most of those, they still got over just by the skin of their teeth. It brings forth the possibility that the Jets could continue seeing things go bad but still end up in this game at the end with a shot to win.

With Breece Hall and Braelon Edwards, the Jets have weapons in the backfield. Wilson and Adams, along with all of those role players gives the Jets on paper the necessary firepower to compete with the Texans, especially without number-one receiver Nico Collins. And while their defense has played with a wide range of stoutness this season, while also waning late in games, it’s still a unit at least capable of good play. And when you combine all this along with the Texans’ tendency to not get much distance from the teams they have beaten, you can start to form a path in your mind for how the Jets can pull this off.

Desperation vs. Functionality

In essence, this is really it for the Jets. This team does not have it in them to go the entire second half of the season unbeaten—something they’d need to do if they dropped this one. One could say they’re already finished. But numerically, it sort of does come down to this week. So, from an urgency standpoint, at least, you’re getting the Jets at their most heightened point as far as that goes. But it was urgent before this, too, and it didn’t seem to matter much. And in this five-game losing streak, they’re on, four of those were winnable games coming down to the end, and they couldn’t make it happen.

Contrast that with a Houston team that has a knack for steering close games into their column. Their defense tightens up late. The offense makes plays. There’s a positive vibe present with them—a hopefulness that they can get there that is radiated by their coaching staff and players. It’s not the Gloomy Gus vibe we’re seeing from Rodgers and the Jets, where when a game goes into the late stages, you’re more or less expecting them to come apart at the seams.

Take the Small Road Dog

I can understand the viewpoint that the Texans are perhaps fortunate to be 6-2. Or that this is a tough road-spot in a short week. Or even that the Jets somehow begin to see urgency start resonating in some kind of tangible way. But I see a more operationally-sound Houston team actually getting a point as of press-time, and it’s hard to turn that down. I’m going to try to not overthink this one and go with my gut. I’m taking the Texans.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Houston Texans plus 1.5 points.