Texans vs. Colts Free Spread Pick: NFL Week 1 Predictions

NFL Week 1 – Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
When: Sunday, September 8th at 1:00 PM EST
Watch: CBS

Betting Odds

Spread: Buffalo Bills -6.5
Total: Over/Under 47.5

Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season for the Cardinals and Bills kicks off this Sunday at Highmark Stadium right outside of Buffalo, NY. These two teams come into the new league year with high hopes as the Bills look to defend their throne atop the AFC East and the Cardinals look to expand on their youth development and trend upwards in the top-heavy NFC West. There is no shortage of star power in this matchup, some consistent from 2023, but also some new faces that hope to make a mark with their new teams. It will be interesting to tell if the offseason programs and preseason action have been sufficient enough to build the foundations for success, especially since the preseason reps for starters were quite limited for both squads. If this matchup occurred last year, Buffalo would be a much heavier favorite, but Arizona has been able to get healthier and improve the roster in key areas. Before we jump to conclusions on the outcome of this game, let’s take a look at how things may play out in this Week 1 battle.

The Arizona Cardinals are hoping to drastically improve on their play from last year, which shouldn’t be too difficult considering they finished 4-13 on the year and finished with the 4th worst record in the NFL. On the bright side, the Cardinals were awarded a top 5 pick in the draft and took arguably the best playmaker in all of college football in Marvin Harrison Jr. MHJ has a strong NFL bloodline, with his father considered one of the best pass-catchers of his time, playing alongside the likes of Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. He has a long way to go to reach that stature, but his physical tools and knowledge of the game are extremely impressive for a rookie. He will slot in immediately as the number one wide receiver on the Cardinal’s roster with limited competition in that group, including Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson. The best news of all for Arizona is that their dual-threat quarterback Kyler Murray is healthy after suffering an ACL injury to his right knee that kept him sidelined last year. If he can return to form, the offense can lean on his arm and his legs and hopefully provide a boost in play to young tight end Trey McBride. The backfield will be led once again by veteran James Conner, but I expect to see them mix in rookie Trey Benson as the season progresses. The main question marks for this team will be the play of the offensive line and the defensive unit as a whole. The secondary unit headlines by Budda Baker and Sean Murphy-Bunting will attempt to limit the opposition’s passing proficiency and keep games from getting out of hand.

Buffalo, on the other hand, is coming off of a phenomenal regular after winning the AFC East with an 11-6 record. After beating out the Miami Dolphins for the division title, the Bills were able to handle them again in the first round of the playoffs before ultimately falling at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals in the second round. Led by superstar QB Josh Allen, the Bills had a major shake-up to their offense after trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans. They will now rely on second year TE Dalton Kincaid, rookie WR Keon Coleman and veterans Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Khalil Shakir to replace Digg’s production. Kincaid looks poised to be a star in the league but Allen will need to develop a rapport with his receiving group quickly to not lose ground in a division that has three true contenders. Running back James Cook, brother of Dalvin, should see an increase in volume this season, both as a rusher and a receiver. Defensively, the Bills have an impressive group. They are solid along the defensive line and will rely on Ed Oliver, Von Miller, and Greg Rousseau to get into the opposing backfield and disrupt the offense. The linebacking core took a major hit earlier this year as Matt Milano was placed on IR with a torn biceps. He has been the signal caller of this defensive group since he arrived in Buffalo, and his presence will be apparent.

My Pick: Buffalo Bills -6.5

The strength of both of these teams is their offense, but the disparity between the defensive groups is quite significant, in my opinion. I think the Bills are too strong from a pass-rush perspective and will constantly overwhelm a subpar Cardinal offensive line that doesn’t appear to be improved from a season ago. Even without Milano, Buffalo has enough talent to disrupt pass plays and shut down the run. The Cardinals are young and will need time to develop their chemistry. Give me the Bills to win this by at least a touchdown at home in a stadium that is always rocking.