Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Preview: ATS Pick and Analysis

Houston Texans (11-7 SU, 8-8-2 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2 SU, 8-9 ATS)
AFC Divisional Playoffs
Date/Time: Saturday, January 18, 2025 at 4:30PM EST
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: ESPN/ABC

The Houston Texans come into Arrowhead on Saturday for an AFC Divisional Playoff game against the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Texans punched their tickets to this spot with a very nice 32-12 thumping of the Chargers last week in the wild-card round. Recipients of a first-round bye with the conference’s top seed, the Chiefs are coming off a 15-2 season, losing their last game of the year as they rested their starters and entering familiar territory in the postseason as they look to three-peat. What’s the right move for this Saturday?

Is Houston More Dangerous Than They Appear?

It seemed like most of the year, people were generally down on Houston, as their offense failed to reach the heights we saw last season when Texans’ quarterback CJ Stroud dazzled with a group of receivers. This season, it seemed more-muted and after starting off the season at 5-1, they spent the last several months of the season as a sub-.500 team that was no longer considered a real contender by the time this postseason rolled around.

While we don’t want to give Houston too much credit for beating a Chargers’ team that wasn’t quite ready for primetime, we also reserve the right to acknowledge when a team maybe turns a corner and latches onto something positive. The way the disruptive Houston defense basically took over the game was something to behold. There were four picks and a pick-six, and they were getting to the quarterback on a regular basis. On offense, you got what you’re looking for as a Texans fan—almost 300 yards from Stroud as he connected well with Nico Collins, along with RB Joe Mixon going for over 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

But Not So Fast…

Scoring a nice win over a team like the Chargers at home in a high-stakes spot is nice, while not really suggesting the Texans can hang in there at this elevated context. And any concerns you might have for the Chiefs, like maybe they’re rusty, are really put to sleep simply by their track-record, which shows nothing of the sort having ever gotten to them before. Maybe it’s of some benefit that late in the season in week 16, the Texans came into Arrowhead and were able to hang in there decently in a 27-19 loss. Two picks from Stroud were key, and the Texans are now without their most productive player from that game in WR Tank Dell. It was almost routine for the Chiefs.

A Houston backer this week can site any number of things. They could point to how well Houston did here not that long ago or point to the slew of close games the Chiefs played this year where, for a while, it seemed every game was ending on a Harrison Butker field goal try. But my warning to those who find themselves fancying Houston this week is that reading too much into that could lead you astray. The Chiefs are like an older Muhammad Ali—doing enough to win, looking beatable, and then shining in crunch time when it counts most. And for all the criticism they can get from some corners, they did just what they set out to do—get the one-seed and enter the postseason with their stars rested, as the real season now begins.

Value

We see, as of press time, the spread currently sits at 8—the same margin of victory from when the Chiefs faced the Texans on week 16. Taking the Chiefs when they’re giving up a hefty number like this can be tricky, especially with their Milton Berle “just take out enough to win” style of football. This is a Chiefs team that is galvanized in their attempt to make Super Bowl history, not to give the Texans a big beating. And looking back at the Chiefs through the Patrick Mahomes era, we see some years they start the playoffs with a big statement, and other times, they’re just skating by with their eye on the big prize. And sure, the playoffs aren’t the regular season. One recalls the Chiefs first Super Bowl run where in their first playoff game the Texans had them down 21-0 before the Chiefs stormed back to crush them 51-31. It’s not really the same high-flying team, and those kinds of point explosions have seldom been seen by this team in recent seasons.

We saw a Texans team in week 16 fighting for their postseason lives while Kansas City was just protecting their top seed in the conference, already with a lead in that category. In other words, it wasn’t the most urgent spot for the Chiefs, and what they ended up doing was nearly enough for a cover if that happened in this spot. The thing is, I’d expect a more-rested and urgent Chiefs team this time around. And while the Texans will also be urgent, they are not really at full-power. You’d almost prefer last year’s team with all those receivers doing damage and Stroud slinging it all around. Now, with their more traditional approach, it feeds more into the Chiefs’ hands. There is less for the Chiefs’ defense to manage, and they are good against the run, which is a more featured aspect of the Houston offense this season.

Lay the Number

In a lot of ways, the Texans fulfill what you’re looking for with an underdog in what looks to be a tough spot. They hit this game with some decent momentum and maybe picked the right time of the year to start hitting their highest notes. I just think the things that were in place last week that gave them the opportunities to shine will disappear this week to a large extent. The Kansas City offense will not be their own worst enemy this week. That Texans’ pass rush won’t be able to dominate, and they’re probably not going to be able to set things up with their run game as they did last week. I see the Chiefs keeping the Texans at arm’s length and getting out of the divisional round on Saturday with the win and cover at Arrowhead.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 8 points.