Houston at Baltimore Betting Predictions: Our Free Pick and Analysis

Houston Texans (3-13-1 SU, 8-8-1 ATS in 2022) at Baltimore Ravens (10-7, 6-9-2), 9/10/23

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 10

Where: M&T Bank Stadium

TV: CBS

NFL Betting odds: Hous +9.5/Balt -9.5 (Stop laying -110 odds! Start laying only -105 at BAS!)

Total: 44

Lamar Jackson returns to action when he and his Ravens host the Texans for this Week 1 battle in Baltimore. Jackson missed the last third of last season, keeping the Ravens from making a run through the playoffs. But with him back working his magic, Baltimore hopes to contend again in the AFC.

Houston, meanwhile, is beginning again, with another new head coach and a rookie, albeit highly regarded, taking over at quarterback.

Which way are we going here with our free Hou/Bal Week 1 pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 1 NFL betting odds opened Baltimore at -10 over Houston, with an over/under of right around 44.5. Early betting action then edged that spread down to 9.5.

Texans-Ravens NFL Betting Preview

Houston played 3-13-1 last year but finished well, although not well enough to save Coach Smith. The Texans started 1-3-1 last year, with a tie against Indianapolis, a couple of close losses, and a win at Jacksonville. Houston then lost nine games in a row, although the last two came on a late score at Dallas and in overtime against eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City. The Texans then won two of their last three games, both on the road against divisional opponents, to finish with a 4-1 run against the spread.

So perhaps that’s some momentum to carry into this season.

The Texans ranked 31st in total offense last year, averaging just 284 yards per game and 31st in rushing at 87 YPG. On the other side of the ball, Houston ranked 30th in total defense, giving up 380 YPG, and dead last against the run, allowing an alarming 170 YPG.

Over the off-season, the Texans hired former linebacker DeMeco Ryans, who did good things as San Francisco’s DC the last two seasons, as their new head coach. They also used the second overall pick in the draft on Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud, who will begin this season as the starter, and the third overall pick on Alabama LB Will Anderson.

Even after winning just three games last season and with a new HC, new systems, and a rookie QB, the oddsmakers are listing a wins over/under of 6.5 on Houston for this season.

Baltimore, meanwhile, played 10-7 last season and made the playoffs, even with Jackson missing the last six games. The Ravens started 3-3 last year and shoulda/coulda have been 6-0 if not for blowing double-digit leads in losses to Miami, Buffalo, and the Giants. Baltimore then won four straight before blowing another game to Jacksonville, then lost Jackson to a knee injury. But the Ravens finished 3-3 with back-up Tyler Huntley to squeeze into the playoffs, where they nearly pulled a wild-card upset at Cincinnati, if not for a fluke fumble-return for a score by the Bengals in the fourth quarter.

Realistically, Baltimore could have won 13 games last year, if not more.

The Ravens ranked 16th in total offense last season, averaging 339 YPG, and 2nd in rushing at 160 YPG. But that offensive average came in at 356 YPG with Jackson, 309 without him. Baltimore also ranked 10th in total defense at 324 YPG and 3rd against the run, allowing just 92 YPG.

The Ravens used their first pick in the draft on Boston College WR Zay Flowers, then used their next three picks on defense.

After winning ten games last year with only two-thirds of a season from Jackson, Baltimore’s “Season Team Win Total” line is 10.5.

Texans-Ravens Recent History

Baltimore owns a three-game winning streak against Houston, with an average score of 32-13. Most recently, three seasons ago, the Ravens beat the Texans in Houston 33-16.

NFL Betting Trends

Baltimore only played 5-3 SU, 1-6-1 ATS at home last season.

Houston played 3-6 SU and 5-3-1 ATS on the road last season.

Totals Report

The unders played 10-7 in Texans games last season, which averaged 42 total points.

The unders played 12-5 in Ravens games last season, which averaged 39 points.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Houston is operating under a new head coach with new systems, along with one of the worst defenses in the League and a rookie QB. We wish Coach Ryans good luck with that. Baltimore, meanwhile, is a team that should have won 13-14 games last year. With Jackson back, this game really looks like a mismatch. We’re giving the points to the Ravens.

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