Tennessee Titans (1-6 2-5 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-4 5-1-1 ATS) NFL Week 9, Candlestick Park San Francisco, CA 4:15 PM EST Sunday November 8, 2009 on CBS
By Jason Green of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Titans +5/49ers -5
Over/Under: 40.5
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On Sunday afternoon in the City by the Bay, the San Francisco 49ers host the Tennessee Titans. The Titans won their first game of the season this last week and new starter Vince Young breathed some life into a struggling team. The 49ers also switched QB’s, as Alex Smith took over the starting duties. The 49ers are now under .500 with their last loss to the Indianapolis Colts and currently trail the Arizona Cardinals by 1 game in the weak NFC West. The Titans have only won one game and while making the playoffs is a long shot ,Vince Young may “be back”, which gives the Titans some hope for the future.
Last week the Titans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 30-13 while the 49ers lost to the Indianapolis Colts 18-14.
In their win over the Jaguars the Titans out-gained the Jags by 100 yards, but the Jags committed 2 turnovers and that really hurt them. The Titans’ D could not stop the run, as the Jags had 217 yards rushing on only 16 attempts. Vince Young only had 125 yards passing, but he did not get intercepted and he managed the game well. The Titans controlled the game on the ground, as they rushed for 305 yards in the game. That helped them dominate the game in terms of time of possession (39:43 to 20:17). The Titans were favored by 3 points in the game so they easily covered the spread and the posted total of 44.5 was not reached.
In the 49ers loss to the Colts even though they had more rushing yards, 113 to 61, Indianapolis dominated the game in the air out-gaining them 349 yards to 182 yards. New starting QB Alex Smith had a decent game going 19/32 for 198 yards with a TD, but he did have an INT. Overall the 49ers had 2 turnovers and that really hurt them. While the 49ers rushing defense was stellar their secondary was torched by Eli Manning, who passed for 347 yards. The 49ers had the lead heading into halftime, but after the break the Colts scored 9 points while the 49ers were shut out. The 49ers were underdogs by 13 points so they covered the spread and the posted total of 45 was not reached.
This game is a decent match up for the 49ers, since their strength on D
is stuffing the run while the strength of the Titans is their rushing offense.
San Francisco will have to contain RB Chris Johnson, who leads the
NFL this season in rushing yards (824) and is averaging an impressive 6.9
yards per carry. The 49ers rank 3rd in the league in rushing D and if they
can contain Johnson they have a great chance to win this game.
The 49ers have to force Vince Young to beat them with his arm. However, San Francisco has a weak secondary, as they rank 26th in the league in passing defense giving up an average of 252 passing yards per game.
This game features 2 QB’s that were taken high in the draft, but fell on hard times. Now Young and Smith are the starters again and a win would be huge for their confidence and in San Francisco’s case for their playoff aspirations as well.
Smith has a chance in this game to have a big one since the Titans’ passing defense is the worst in the league giving up an average of 282 yards per game. If the 49ers’ offensive line gives Smith time to find his targets he may shred the Titans’ secondary.
The Titans especially have to worry about TE Vernon Davis (375 yds 7 TD), who is Smith’s main target.
Frank Gore is having a decent season (when he’s not hurty) and if he can pick up some yards on the ground it will open the passing game for Smith just that much more.
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The 49ers were hurt by turnovers in their last game and they have to hold onto the ball in this game.
In some trends for this game the 49ers are solid at 5-1-1 ATS this season, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, the Titans are only 1-5 in their last 6 games, and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Jason’s Pick: OK, so the Titans did get their first win of the season in their last game, but now face a solid San Francisco defense. Look for Smith to have a good game passing the ball and for the 49ers to play good rushing defense. The 49ers will win this game and cover the spread, as they will get back to .500 and back into the think of the NFC West race.
