Tennessee Titans (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (2-0 SU, 2-0
ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, September 27, 2009, Giants Stadium, East
Rutherford, N.J., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Titans +2.5/Jets -2.5
Over/Under 37
Oh, how appropriate it is to see last years AFC early-season surprise, the Tennessee Titans, facing a near must-win situation this Sunday on the road in Giants Stadium and their opponent is none other than this seasons hottest AFC team, the New York Jets.
The Titans defense forgot to show up last Sunday in their embarrassing 34-31 loss to Houston in their home opener, and when you add that stinker to the tough opening night loss at Pittsburgh, the
Titans are on the verge of a possible 0-3 start following last years
surprise 13-3 campaign.
The Jets on the other hand are the hottest thing since sliced bread in the NFL. Head coach Rex Ryan and his rookie quarterback Mark
Sanchez are being hailed as heroes in New York, one week after
knocking off the big, bad AFC East Division rival Patriots last
weekend, 16-9. The Jets defense under Ryan is starting to look like
Ryans former team, the Ravens, as they held the Pats and Tom Brady
under 300 total yards for the game and have yet to give up an
offensive touchdown this season.
Oddsmakers offshore and in Las Vegas appear to be giving the Jets some early respect as far as point spreads go too, as they opened the game with the Jets as solid 3-point favorites at home in Giants
Stadium against a hungry Titans team. But the early steam at the
betting window has been on Tennessee and has caused line movement all
over the board, as now you can get the Jets listed as high as 3-point
favorites (BoDog), or as low as slim 1-point favorites (Pinnacle),
depending on which offshore sportsbook youre wagering at.
The over/under total opened at 38 and has dropped a point down to its
current level of 37 on the board at most books.
Offensively these two teams are spitting images of each other, with
each trying to wear down the opponent with power running games that
open up an occasional play-action pass down the field. The big
difference is the Titans have veteran QB Kerry Collins calling the
shots, while the Jets have the rookie first rounder in Sanchez
calling the signals.
Sanchez has done a solid job of game management for the Jets in his first two games, completing over 60 percent of his passes for an 8.2-
yard average and only one interception (91.3 QB rating). Handing it
off the Thomas Jones (161 yds. 2 TD) behind a solid offensive line
has made him look less like a rookie and more like a leader to build
around on offense.
Collins struggled a little in the opener against Pittsburgh, but that is to be expected against the NFLs top defense from a season ago. He
was decent against Houston (216 yds., 2 TD, 1 INT), he just didnt
expect his normally strong defense to get gouged for 34 points by the
Texans.
Speaking of defense, thats where these two teams have separated
themselves this season so far.
The Jets are currently ranked No. 1 overall allowing just 241 yards a game, and 8th in scoring with an average of 8 points allowed per game through two weeks. Keep in mind these numbers were against Kansas
City and a struggling Patriots team.
Meanwhile, the Titans reliable pass defense is dead last 32nd in the
league through two games allowing 339 yards per game, which has
helped to make the defense as a whole rank just 26th so far allowing
388.5 yards per game.
Last year the Jets and Brett Favre had their way with the Titans, racking up 192 rushing yards and 217 passing yards en route to a
34-13 victory in Nashville. The Jets lopsided win came as 5.5-point
underdogs, and was the start of all of the Super Bowl talk last
season that fizzled out by December.
The Jets are one of the few AFC teams to have success against the
Titans lately, both on the field and at the window for bettors. The
Jets have won four of the last five meetings (dating back to 1998) to
give them a 4-1 SU record to go along with their perfect 5-0 ATS
record in the same five-game span. However, that 5-0 ATS record came
as the underdog each time, so this will be the first game they have
played in the series as the favorite since 1994.
Badgers Pick: The Jets are a great story and will be a fun team to follow this season, but the slipper falls off this week. No way the Titans defense lays back-to-back duds, especially since they need
this win extra bad. Take Tennessee plus the 2.5-points.
