Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints Total Pick

Tennessee Titans (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
NFL Football Week 1
Date/Time: Sunday September 10th, 2023. 1:00 PM (EST)
Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA
TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TEN +3/NO -3 (Bet on games at -105 instead of -110 at BetAnySports!)
Moneyline: Ten +155/NOLA -175
Over/Under: 41

The New Orleans Saints suffered their worst record (7-10 SU) in over 20 years last season and are looking to turn things around to start off their 2023 campaign. To be fair, the Saints were left high and dry last year with the departures of franchise QB Drew Brees (retirement) and former Head Coach Sean Peyton. In the aftermath, the Saints struggled to find stability at the quarterback position between Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. As a result, the Saints spent the offseason trying to address many concerns and signed QB Derek Carr to a generous contract in effort to solidify the most important position on the field. The Saints are hoping some of their offseason moves will yield immediate improvement and will open the season as 3-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans.

On the other side of the field, the Tennessee Titans enter the 2023 season in a similar scenario. The Titans finished 7-10 SU last season and missed the playoffs for the first time in 4 years. Like New Orleans, the Titans QB situation was shaky throughout the season. QB Ryan Tannehill produced modest results through 12 games, completing 65% passing for 2,536 yards with 13 touchdowns and six picks. Tannehill was injured during the latter part of the season and the Titans used that opportunity to move QB Malik Willis into the starting role for a trial run. However, Willis disappointed in resounding fashion, and Tannehill will once again begin the year as the Titans starter. However, Tennessee has a somewhat favorable match-up stylistically in this game despite potentially being perceived as the less talented team.

Titans Offense vs. Saints Defense

The good thing about the start of a new season is the fact that Titans RB Derrick Henry is healthy and ready to carry the load. Henry has been among the best NFL running backs in the league over the last several years and benefits from a run-heavy scheme under Head Coach Mike Vrabel. This particular match-up is intriguing because the Saints’ biggest weakness is along their defensive front. The Saints ranked as a bottom six defense against the run and in pass-rush efficiency in 2022. Despite several offseason moves, there have not been many convincing efforts to address the defensive front, which is concerning against a power rushing opponent like Tennessee.

It is worth mentioning that the Titans did sign WR DeAndre Hopkins over the offseason, which will provide an immediate boost to the receiving corps. The Titans have struggled tremendously since losing A.J. Brown, and Hopkins should step in as the immediate go-to guy in the passing game. However, I would also mention that Hopkins is starting to get up there in age and will have a tough match-up against CB Marcus Lattimore. Therefore this battle between the Titans offense and Saints defense will likely be settled along the trenches. If the Saints fail to win the war in the trenches, look for Henry to eat.

Questions linger around Saints offense

As mentioned earlier, New Orleans signed Derek Carr to provide an immediate improvement in the quarterback situation. I believe Carr will be an immediate improvement and give the Saints better options to open up the playbook. WR Chris Olave proved to be very special in his rookie season, catching 72 passes for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns in a relatively anemic offense. Olave should be poised for even bigger numbers in 2023. However, the Saints offensive outlook is not bulletproof from concerns.

WR Michael Thomas has barely been on the field in the last two years, and star RB Alvin Kamara took a big step back in production last season. Kamara is suspended for the opening four games this year due to matters that happened off the field, and the Saints were obviously concerned enough to bring in RB Jamaal Williams from Detroit to help in the backfield. Needless to say, if the Saints are going to take a big step forward in 2023 then Thomas and Kamara will likely need to return to relevance. If that does not happen, the Saints could have another tough season ahead.

Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

• Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 games
• Tennessee is 0-7 SU in the last seven games
• Tennessee has hit the “under” in four of the last five games
• Tennessee is 1-4 SU in the last five games on the road
• Tennessee is 6-2 SU in the last eight games against New Orleans
• New Orleans is 4-1 SU in the last five season openers
• New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in the last six games against AFC opponents
• New Orleans has hit the “under” in each of the last six games
• New Orleans has hit the “under” in four of the last five games at home

Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction

This is a pretty intriguing game for both teams. I believe the Titans have value at the +155 ML and could easily control the tempo of this game. However, I personally like the “under” as the safer play. I believe this will be a low-scoring affair as both offenses continue to struggle.
Jay’s Pick: Take the under 41