Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans Best Bet

Tennessee Titans (5-10 SU, 6-8-1 ATS) at Houston Texans (8-7, 7-8), 12/31/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 31
Where: NRG Stadium
TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point spread: Tenn +4.5/Hous -4.5
Money line: Tenn +180/Hous -220
Total: 42.5

The upstart Texans, who only won three games all of last season, remain in this season’s playoff hunt, heading into this AFC South bout with the Titans on Sunday afternoon in Houston.

The Texans are still alive despite missing starting quarterback CJ Stroud in the last couple of weeks. And they hope to get him back for Sunday.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is playing out the string on a lost season.

These teams just played a close game two weeks ago. How might this one play out?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 17 NFL betting market opened Houston as a four-point favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 43. Early betting action, perhaps anticipating Stroud’s return, edged that spread to 4.5.

Titans Betting Preview

Tennessee is coming off back-to-back tough home losses after falling to Seattle last Sunday 20-17. The Titans, with Ryan Tannehill back in at QB, led the Seahawks 7-0 early and 17-13 late. But Tennessee let Seattle drive 75 yards in 14 plays to a deciding touchdown with under a minute to go.

The Titans out-gained Seattle 287-273 and out-rushed the Seahawks 172-58. They just lost the game.

Tennessee has actually out-gained four of its last five opponents. But the Titans have also lost three games by exactly three points over that span.

At 5-10 overall, Tennessee is playing these last few games for pride and perhaps some jobs.

Texans Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Houston is trying to bounce back this week after losing at home to Cleveland last Sunday 36-22. And that game wasn’t as close as that final score might indicate. The Texans, in their second game with back-up QB Case Keenum, fell behind 14-0 out of the gate and later trailed 36-7 before scoring a couple of garbage touchdowns with their 3rd-string QB.

Houston got out-gained by the Browns 418-250, and most of the Texans yardage came in garbage time.

We bet Houston last week because we liked Keenum and the Texans defense. The less said about that pick, the better.

Two weeks ago, the Texans came from behind to win at Tennessee 19-16 in overtime. Three weeks ago, Houston got punked at the Jets 30-6. Going back a bit further, the Texans are 2-3, both SU and ATS their last five times out.

At 8-7 overall Houston is tied for first place in the AFC South with Jacksonville and Indianapolis. The Texans are also tied with three other teams for the 7-10 spots in the AFC playoff standings. But because of tie-breakers, Houston sits on the outside looking in at both races.

On the injury front, the list is extensive for both these teams. Bettors might want to consult later reports before getting down on this game. We’re not even sure who will play QB for either team Sunday but from a few days out we’re guessing both Stroud and Will Levis will return for the Texans and Titans, respectively.

Titans-Texans Recent History

These teams split their season series each of the last two years. Then two weeks ago Houston took the first meeting between the teams this season 19-16 in overtime in Nashville. Tennessee led that game almost all day but the Texans tied it late, then won it on a long field goal at the very end of OT.

Houston out-gained the Titans that day 340-204.

Also, that game played under a total of 38.

Common Opponents

These teams have played ten common opponents this season: members of the AFC South and North and the NFC South. Houston played those foes to 5-6, both SU and ATS, Tennessee to 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS.

Totals Report

• The Unders are 10-5 in Titans games this season, which are averaging 39 total points.
• The Unders are 9-6 in Texans games, which are averaging 44 points.
• The Overs played 10-6 in the NFL last week, but on the season the Unders are 131-109.
• The Unders are 3-0 over the last three meetings between these teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Both teams are banged up at QB, both are having trouble running the ball, and both are good at stopping the run. So these teams, despite the W-L records, seem pretty close. Also, these teams just played a close game a couple of weeks ago. And six of the last seven meetings between these teams were decided by seven points or less. Regardless of the QB situations, we’ll take Tennessee plus the points.