Buccaneers at Panthers Pick: Playoffs on the line for Bucs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8 SU, 10-6 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (2-14, 4-10-2), 1/7/24

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Jan. 7

Where: Bank of America Stadium

TV: Fox

Point spread: TB -5.5/Car +5.5

Money line: Bucks -245/Panthers +200

Total: 37.5

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The Buccaneers can clinch a third straight NFC South title with a win Sunday afternoon at Carolina. Tampa Bay’s late-season run hit a bump last Sunday, but the Bucs still control their own playoff destiny.

A couple of Heisman Trophy winners face off here as a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield leads Tampa against struggling rookie Bryce Young and his Panthers.

The Bucs are favored by almost a touchdown, but these teams just played a close game a month ago.

Who do we like for our free Bucs/Panthers Week 18 pick?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 18 NFL betting market opened Tampa at -5.5 on the road for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 37.5. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

Buccaneers Betting Preview

Tampa Bay just had a four-game winning streak snapped by a 23-13 loss at home to New Orleans last Sunday. The Buccaneers, coming in hot, came out flat and trailed 17-0 at the half. Tampa later got within ten, but by then, it was too late, as the Bucs took a disappointing home defeat.

The Buccaneers out-gained the Saints 349-310. However, that’s misleading, considering over half of Tampa’s yardage came after falling behind 20-0. The Bucs also turned the ball over four times.

Tampa Bay started 3-1 this season, then lost six of its next seven games, then won four in a row.

Here’s the deal with the Buccaneers: they’re 8-2 both SU and ATS when they score at least 20 points, 0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS when they don’t.

At 8-8 overall, Tampa Bay is tied with New Orleans for the lead in the NFC South but owns the tie-breaker on the Saints. So with a win Sunday, the Bucs win the division, but a loss knocks ’em out.

Panthers Betting Preview

Meanwhile, after a promising showing two weeks ago against Green Bay, Carolina reverted to normal last week and got shut out at Jacksonville 26-0. The Panthers only trailed the Jaguars 9-0 at the half but couldn’t get anything going offensively and whiffed ATS at +4.

Carolina managed just 124 yards of total offense last Sunday and seven first downs.

Three weeks ago, the Panthers scored nine points but beat Atlanta 9-7. Two weeks ago, Carolina rallied from a 16-point, 4th-quarter deficit to tie the game against the Packers, only to lose on a late field goal. However, we should point out that Green Bay’s defense stinks.

At 2-14 overall, the Panthers are playing their last game under interim Coach Tabor before heading into an off-season search for yet another HC.

Buccaneers-Panthers Recent History

Tampa Bay owns the edge in this rivalry recently, winning six of the last seven meetings SU, going 5-2 ATS along the way. One month ago, the Bucs took the first meeting between these teams this season 21-18 in Tampa. But a late Carolina touchdown and 2-point conversion gave the Panthers the cover at +3.5.

A case could be made. Carolina out-played the Buccaneers that day. But the big play of the game, a long Mayfield-to-Evans touchdown in the third quarter, went the Bucs’ way.

Also, that game snuck over the total line of 37.

Common Opponents

These division rivals played ten common opponents this season: their division rivals, plus the NFC North and AFC South. Tampa played those foes to 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS, Carolina to 2-10 SU, 3-7-2 ATS.

NFL Betting Trends

Home dogs are 41-48 ATS in the NFL this season.

Rookie starting quarterbacks are 31-32 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

• The Unders are 10-6 in Bucs games this season, which are averaging 41 total points.
• The Unders are 11-5 in Panthers games, which are averaging 40 points.
• The Unders are 138-118 in the NFL this season.
• The Overs are 6-2 over the last eight meetings between these teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Did Tampa convince us they’re a great team with their recent winning streak? No. But are they good enough to give a bounce-back performance here, following last week’s flat effort? Yes. Also, we figure the Bucs, with that nice receiving combo of Evans and Godwin, are good for at least 20 points, even against a pretty good Carolina defense. Also, Tampa owns the better performance against common opponents and has had the upper hand in this rivalry recently. We’re giving the points with the Buccaneers on Sunday.

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