Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Buffalo Bills Pick – TNF Predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Week 8 NFL

Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, October 26, 2023, at 8:15 PM EDT

Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

TV: Prime Video

Point Spread: TB +7.5/BUF -7.5 (Bovada)

Money Line: TB +290, BUF -380

Over/Under Total: 41.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. Both teams have to turn around on the short week after taking tough losses. Tampa, after tying the Falcons with 45 seconds left last week, saw an Atlanta team that hadn’t done much march down and kick the game-winning FG as the clock hit zero. For the Bills, it wasn’t any better, scoring the go-ahead TD late with the two-pointer to give them the 3-point lead, only to see the 1-5 Patriots march down the field unabated for the go-ahead TD with 12 seconds left. Which team can spin out of a rough week 7 for this TNF spot?

Back to Earth for the Bills?

Losing to the Jets in week one aside, the Bills had been rolling, winning three straight with their offense looking to be in fine working order. In their last three, there’s the 25-20 loss in London to the Jags, a tepid 14-9 win over the Giants, and then this latest flop to New England. Granted, playing in London maybe took a little steam out of them, as seen by their close win over a ragged Giants’ squad, but for it to carry over this past week should be concerning. Going into New England isn’t easy, and the Patriots played well, but they still had won just one game and been pretty lousy most of the season. Now, we see a short week coming off a deflating road-loss, and with all they’ve been through in the last several weeks, you wonder if they’re being run a little ragged. Like last week, this seems like a highly-doable spot, at home against a Tampa team that has dropped three of four. But lately in mouth-watering spots, they just haven’t delivered.

We see a trend becoming more of the norm, with Josh Allen’s interception total starting to once again rise. For as much offensive firepower as they have, it’s not all that rare to see them looking like a rudderless unit. They’ve been a Jeckyl and Hyde group this season. They managed to get it cranking late against the Patriots last week after doing nothing for nearly three quarters, but after their three-game stretch of pounding opponents, we’ve seen a pretty mediocre group the last three games.

Hope This Week for the Bucs?

Tampa obviously has issues of their own, and their gutty 3-1 start is becoming a memory after two tough losses. We’ve seen their offense stall out with 19 combined points in their last two games. While still seeing their defense shine through, Baker Mayfield has had some tough sledding as of late, while also seeing diminishing returns from the running game. While playing well in spots, Mayfield hasn’t been able to sustain many drives as of late. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still weapons. RB Rachaad White can catch balls when holes aren’t opening for him. But it’s a pretty one-dimensional unit where the real difference-making threats outside of Evans and Godwin are minimal. Still, this is not the same Buffalo defense we’ve seen in recent seasons. Some of their recent results, including the lack of resistance they showed the Patriots’ offense, should offer Bucs backers some hope this Thursday.

With a Buffalo offense finding trouble hitting its stride, this is a spot where the Buccaneers defense needs to hold firm. They have only allowed more than 20 points one time this season so far. It’s a commendable feat considering the recent lack of support offered by the offensive side of the ball. They can get after the quarterback and make game-changing plays in their secondary. We’ve only seen the Eagles’ D’Andre Swift get off against this Buccaneers’ run defense this season, courtesy of that great Philly offensive line. Buffalo is struggling to run the ball especially well, and this would be a strange spot for that to get better. Aerially, they’ve been a little less stout, and it is there where Allen and the Bills will be looking to get business done this week. It’s just part of their profile that is bit less of the surefire element it once was.

Can Urgency Play a Role?

Tampa is 3-3, having seen a good start to the season fall apart a little bit. Granted, expectations were quite low, but there is still a lot of pride on that sideline, and another loss could start to send them down that long road of a hard season. And granted at 4-3, Buffalo’s situation is hardly dire. They’re one game behind Miami, and it’s not time to start panicking. But they also don’t want to mess around and hit the halfway-point of the season fighting to keep their noses above .500. And during this several year-long run of contention the Bills have been on, it seems they respond well when put in these midseason pickles where things are starting to get away from them a little bit. With their backs against the wall in the regular season, they usually seem to respond in the affirmative.

Take the Home Favorite

It can be a real bummer when you back the Bills and tune in, and it’s not the Bills you were expecting. And truth is in the last season-plus, that’s been a more frequent occurrence. This might not be an ideal spot for the Buffalo offense to reascend, as Tampa Bay offers some tough matchups on defense throughout their unit. But this could also be a good spot for a home-Buffalo defense to start coming to life a little bit against a Bucs’ offense that has been really flat the last few weeks. I think the Bills get the win and cover in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Buffalo Bills minus 7.5 points.