Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. L.A. Chargers Prediction & Betting Analysis

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)
NFL Football Week 15
Date/Time: Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 4:25PM EST
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: Fox

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to SoFi Stadium on Sunday for a week 15 matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are looking to keep piling on the wins to fortify their postseason standing. That took a small hit on Sunday when the Bolts fell to a last-second field goal by the Chiefs, with a 19-17 loss dropping them to 8-5 on the season. Tampa, meanwhile, saw things continue to go their way, with a 28-13 win over the Raiders on Sunday being their third win in a row. This recent spurt has allowed the Bucs to take over first place in the NFC South. Who should we get behind in this one?

Easy to Underrate the Chargers

For a team that came really close to going to 9-4 last week, there isn’t a ton on the surface to get thrilled about when assessing the Bolts. It can lead to some people rating them too low in their minds. Justin Herbert has been pretty good, with 14 TDs and just one pick, but there are truly no stars on this offense. And with Ladd McConkey’s status in the air and JK Dobbins on IR, it’s even more the case. The backfield is really strapped now, and after a promising start to the season, they haven’t been running the ball well lately. We see their aerial pieces banged up, with TE Will Dissly leaving the game and the targets with which Herbert might be working in this spot being a pretty unappealing cast.

Some may have felt justified in disregarding the great start to the season the Chargers had on defense, allowing scant point-totals through the first few months. With the Bengals and Ravens exploiting the defense to some degree a few weeks back, the backlash might have gone too far. The defense allowing a combined 32 points in their last two games against Atlanta and Kansas City have been a big part of them covering the spread in the last two weeks.

It’s still hard to gauge exactly what the Chargers are in terms of what it is they actually do best. Maybe they’re just one of those teams that is competent enough in all areas to make it work, with good coaching, special teams, and defense being things that often slip under the radar while people focus on an offense that seems to be Justin Herbert and just a bunch of guys. And for teams like Tampa, dangerous teams that can sometimes falter and undermine themselves, all-around solid teams like the Chargers can sometimes be a handful.

Good Spot for Tampa?

I’m not too worried about the locale for Tampa Bay, though facing an opponent out of conference with this being their third road-game in four weeks perhaps isn’t ideal. In addition, this isn’t a spot where you’d normally forecast an opposing offense to shine. And while Baltimore and Cincy were able to get things done against this Chargers’ defense, that doesn’t mean Tampa can deliver that same success or avoid the game-changing elements the Chargers can bring to bear on defense. And like the Chargers, the Bucs are not at an ideal state of health on offense, with Chris Godwin on IR, Mike Evans still coming around to full health, and now rookie standout back Bucky Irving banged up. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield’s career turnaround has been tremendous. But with back-to-back games with multiple interceptions, cleaning that up should be a top priority before coming into SoFi this week.

On one hand, the Tampa defense seems gettable, but they can be tougher than people project. In their last four games, they haven’t allowed more than 23 points. And I wouldn’t suspect this as being a spot where the Chargers would have a lot of success running the ball. They could have some advantages aerially, but aren’t in the best spot to exploit that with Herbert low on options. But against a defense that is prone to being leaky against the pass, I wouldn’t rule out Herbert getting some things done with what he has at his disposal, especially if guys like McConkey and Dissly are good to go.

I just see the Bucs as being a tough nut to crack right now. They’ve built up a slim lead in the division, something that could go away really fast. They have built up some nice momentum, and while over-emphasizing wins over teams like the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders could lead us astray, they still managed to pull out wins when there were aspects of their performance that were not going well, whether it was injury setbacks, some rough games from Mayfield, or what have you. And while a road-spot against a winning team that also doesn’t have any slack to give is a tougher task than what they’ve had, I think the Bucs are in a decent headspace going into this week.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

It always seems easier than it is with a team like the Chargers. You see the Buccaneers with better receiver play and better running back play, and the mind runs with the narrative. In the Chargers’ favor is basically every other thing—by margins that exceed the Buccaneers’ edges. This is neither a spot where an offense can be counted on to deliver nor is it one where an offense can skate by making mistakes. I see the Chargers’ defense coming through in this spot in a big way while Herbert continues finding what he can with what he has on offense. I like the Bolts to get clear late, get the win, and cover at home on Sunday. I’m taking the Chargers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers minus 3 points.