Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS)

NFL Football Week 12

Date/Time: Sunday, November 26th, 2023, 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TB +2.5/IND -2.5 (Bovada – Get a 75% real cash bonus up to $750 when you make your first deposit using Crypto at the web’s best bookie!)

Moneyline: Bucs +115/Indy -135

Total: 43.5

Fresh off a Week 11 bye, the Indianapolis Colts will return to action on Sunday when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Prior to the bye, the Colts snapped a 3-game losing streak with back-to-back wins over Carolina and New England. At 5-5 SU, the Colts may appear to be a non-playoff contender. However, they are still alive in the AFC South and have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the NFL, which may keep them in the wildcard race as well. With those things in mind, each game will be very important moving forward, starting with Sunday’s home stand against the Buccaneers.

The visiting Bucs are on the heels of a 27-14 loss to the 49ers in Week 11. The loss was Tampa Bay’s 5th defeat in the last six games. Crazy enough, the Bucs are still just one game behind in the race for the NFC South, which is undoubtedly the worst division in football. Despite the string of losses and 4-6 SU record, the Bucs have actually been one of the better teams in the NFL against the number with an impressive 7-3 mark against the spread. For this Sunday’s road trip to Indianapolis, the Bucs will be mere 2.5-point underdogs in a game where they will be desperate to turn things around and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Analysis

As we look into the intrinsic details of this matchup, I must say that I am kind of surprised that the Bucs are listed as underdogs. The Colts offense has been somewhat of a mess this season. QB Anthony Richardson provided some early fireworks before he went down for the year. Backup QB Gardner Minshew has been very inconsistent with 8 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Meanwhile, star RB Jonathan Taylor missed the first few games during a contract dispute. Since returning to the lineup, Taylor has not shown the production that Colts fans are accustomed to seeing, and you could argue that RB Zach Moss has been more efficient this season.

Either way, the Colts offense remains centered around their ground attack and that is where the Tampa Bay defense has thrived in recent seasons. This year the Bucs are allowing just 90 yards per game, which ranks 5th in the NFL, and that is on top of all the offensive/time of possession issues. Therefore, I don’t believe this is an ideal matchup for the Colts, especially if Minshew continues to struggle. On the other side of the football, I will always be critical of QB Baker Mayfield. Love him or hate him, the Bucs offense is dependent upon his production because there is absolutely no running threat in Tampa’s backfield. With that being said, the Bucs have continuously found ways to move the football with Mayfield and WR Mike Evans at the center of everything. Against a Colts defense giving up 228 yards per game through the air, I expect there to be opportunities again for the Bucs to continue to do what they do best and air it out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends

• The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• The Bucs are 1-5 SU in the last six games.
• The Bucs have hit the “under” in seven of the last eight games.
• The Bucs are 5-0 ATS in the last five games on the road.
• The Colts are 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
• The Colts have hit the “over” in 11 of the last 16 games.
• The Colts are 5-12 SU in the last 17 games.
• The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games against the Colts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Prediction

I believe these two teams are pretty equal in terms of talent. With that being said, I simply like the matchup angle, which favors the Buccaneers. I also like the fact that the Bucs have played some of their best football on the road, covering five straight games away from Raymond James Stadium. Needless to say, I will take the extra points as a pure gift!

Jay’s Pick: Take Tampa Bay +2.5