Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Pick ATS | 1/21/24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8 SU, 12-6 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (13-5 SU, 12-6 ATS)
NFC Divisional Playoff Betting Preview
Date/Time: Sunday January 21st, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Ford Field Detroit, MI
TV: NBC

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TB +6.5/DET -6.5
Moneyline: TB +240/DET -285
Total: 48.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were expected to be one and done in the 2024 NFL Playoffs. After sneaking into the postseason with a lowly 9-8 SU record courtesy of the worst division (NFC South) in football, the Buccaneers’ trip to the postseason appeared to be nothing more than a consolation prize. However, Tampa Bay took their postseason opportunity and delivered one of the more decisive victories of the entire weekend in a 32-9 thumping over the reigning NFC Champions in the Philadelphia Eagles. The Buccaneers dominated the Eagles behind the stellar play of QB Baker Mayfield and the Bucs defense. As a result, Tampa Bay will get another chance to deliver an upset when they meet the Detroit Lions this Sunday in an NFC Divisional playoff match-up.

While the Buccaneers delivered one of the more shocking outcomes in last week’s opening round of the playoffs, the Detroit Lions secured their first playoff victory since 1991 with last week’s 24-23 win over the Rams. Before the victory, the Rams were playing some of the best football in the league and were considered a dark horse to make a deep playoff run. However, Detroit reminded everyone that they are a very good football team behind strong performances from QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and others. Needless to say, Detroit now appears to be the potential Cinderella story and will have an advantageous match-up this Sunday when they host the Buccaneers as 6.5-point betting favorites at Ford Field.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Analysis

I thought the Buccaneers had a good match-up opportunity against Philadelphia last week. So, I took the Over 44 points because I expected Tampa’s success would drive a high-scoring affair. Unfortunately, the Eagles could not create any success on the offensive side of the football and that “over” prediction fell short. However, I do believe this is another potentially promising match-up for Tampa Bay because the Lions’ defense has been subpar against the pass throughout the year allowing 247 yards per game. As a result, that plays into the pass-happy style of Tampa Bay who loves to sling the football around the field.

While I have been personally critical of QB Baker Mayfield, I must admit that he played a flawless game last week against the Eagles. There were even some big drops in that game that could have made the outcome even uglier. Mayfield appears to be settled nicely into Todd Bowles’ offense and is performing at a high level, especially if opposing pass rushers do not get home. This could be another opportunistic match-up for the Tampa Bay pass protection which means WR Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and TE Cade Otton should have plentiful opportunities in the passing game. Of course, the big thing here is Mayfield has to continue to be the quarterback we witnessed last week. If Mayfield has a subpar performance, the Buccaneers’ chances of an upset will all but vanish.

For Detroit, I’m not going to pretend to know the offensive strategy this week, but I expect the Lions will try to keep their focus on the ground game. Detroit only managed to produce 79 total yards rushing in last week’s win against the Rams despite 25 rushing attempts. However, the Lions’ offense truly excels off of their threat to run the football. I believe that will be the case again on Sunday as RB David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs attack a solid defensive front. Once that happens, I expect plays will open up over the top just as they have all season. Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta have become huge threats in the passing game and I don’t think anything changes with this particular match-up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Trends

• The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in the last six games.
• The Bucs have hit the “under” in four of the last five games.
• The Bucs are 6-1 SU in the last seven games.
• The Bucs are 8-1 ATS in the last nine games on the road.
• The Lions are 4-1 SU & ATS in the last five games.
• The Lions have hit the “over” in seven of the last ten games.
• The Lions are 7-1 SU in the last eight games at home.
• The Lions are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Prediction

This match-up is opportunistic for both offenses so I would not be surprised if this was potentially the highest scoring match-up of the weekend. With that said, the Bucs can win this game if Mayfield continues to play well. Therefore, I’m going to take the points as I see this being a very equal match-up.

Jay’s Pick: Take the Buccaneers +6.5