Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Pick for Week 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS)

NFL Football Week 14

Date/Time: Sunday December 10th, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TB +2.5/ATL -2.5

Moneyline: Bucs +125/Dirty Birds -145

Total: 39

*Be sure to also check out our college bowl game picks!

Last week, the Atlanta Falcons earned a difficult but satisfying 13-8 victory over the New York Jets. The Falcons’ defense stood strong against New York Jets QB Tim Boyle, who received his first start of the season. Despite a subpar performance on the offensive side of the football, the Falcons’ defense forced three turnovers and held the Jets to single digits on the scoreboard. The end result equated to Atlanta picking up their 2nd win in a row to climb back to the .500 mark on the season while also taking the #1 spot in the NFC South divisional race. On Sunday, Atlanta will attempt to keep control of the division when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a critical NFC South showdown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on the heels of a 21-18 victory over the dismal Carolina Panthers last week. The Buccaneers snapped a two-game losing streak despite another mediocre performance on the offensive side of the football. The Bucs offense has been held to 21 points or less in 4 straight games. Despite the concerns on the offensive side of the football, the Bucs defense has continued to play well and the defensive play could be the Buccaneers’ best asset in these divisional match-ups. Despite the 5-7 SU record, the Buccaneers could climb back into the driver’s seat in the race for the NFC South if they can pull out a victory in Atlanta this Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

While Tampa Bay’s offense has been under heavy scrutiny in recent weeks, WR Mike Evans continues to be the lone bright spot. Evans erupted yet again last week for seven catches, totaling 162 yards with a touchdown, and single-handedly led the offense to victory. Evans has recorded five touchdowns over the last five games and continues to present the biggest match-up advantage for the Tampa Bay offense each week. Evans and QB Baker Mayfield should have decent opportunities again this week against an Atlanta that ranks 27th in QB pressure and 20th in coverage according to PFF. It is no secret that the Bucs offense has been reliant on the production of Evans in recent weeks, with WR Chris Godwin and RB Rachaad White acting as a supporting cast.

While I have never been a fan of QB Baker Mayfield, I must admit that the match-up this week looks achievable. Meanwhile, the Falcons’ run-heavy offensive approach will meet a stingy Tampa Bay run defense. Even with his usage increasing, RB Bijan Robinson has been held to 65 yards or less in 5 of the last seven games. Additionally, this is the same Atlanta offense that is just a few weeks removed from benching QB Desmond Ridder and later returned to him following a brief stint with Taylor Heinicke. I believe WR Drake London is a very talented asset to the Falcons passing attack but his production is largely based on the performance from the quarterback position. As a result, I’m just not optimistic about this match-up on the offensive side of the football. Atlanta will likely need a big defensive effort just as they did in the 16-13 victory over the Bucs back in week 7.

Bucs vs. Falcons Betting Trends

• The Bucs are 4-2 ATS in the last six games.
• The Bucs have hit the “under” in seven of the last ten games.
• The Bucs are 2-6 SU in the last eight games.
• The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in the last six games on the road.
• The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games.
• The Falcons have hit the “under” in 13 of the last 18 games.
• The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• The Falcons have hit the “over” in 11 of the last 15 games against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction

I really think the wrong team is favored in this match-up as I see more paths to victory for Tampa Bay. The Bucs run defense has rarely given up big numbers on the ground and I have no faith that QB Desmond Ridder can provide any help in the passing game. I’ll take the better team here that is getting bonus points!

Jay’s Pick: Take the Bucs +3 (buy up if needed)