Super Bowl LVIII Total Pick

Super Bowl LVIII Betting Preview

Date/Time: Sunday February 11th, 2024. 6:30 PM (EST)

Where: Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas, NV.

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: SF -2/KC +2

Moneyline: SF -130/KC +110

Total: 47.5

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Despite some uncanny struggles during the middle of the regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in familiar territory following their 4th AFC Championship victory in the last five years. QB Patrick Mahomes has already led the Chiefs to two Super Bowl victories in his six years as a starter in Kansas City, including last year’s 38-35 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. This year, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to two playoff victories on the road after a somewhat disappointing regular season. Once again, Mahomes and Head Coach Andy Reid have an opportunity to extend their run of greatness when they meet the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium for Super Bowl LVIII.

While the Chiefs will be attempting to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles for the first time since Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in 2003-2004, the San Francisco 49ers are attempting to return to glory and tie the Patriots and Steelers (6) for the most Super Bowl wins in NFL history. In many ways, Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has built his own dynasty in San Francisco. While it may not have the merits compared to Kansas City, Shanahan has led the 49ers to 4 NFC Championship appearances and will be making his 2nd Super Bowl appearance in just seven years in The Bay area. Perhaps more importantly, Shanahan may have found his quarterback of the future in breakout star Brock Purdy, who has gone from Mr. Irrelevant to an MVP-caliber player!

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Our betting focus for Super Bowl LVIII will surround the 47.5 point betting total. In many ways, this number is a conundrum to casual bettors because the Chiefs and 49ers both have offenses capable of producing huge numbers. The 49ers had to rally from a 17 point halftime deficit last week in the NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions. The 49ers got big performances from Brock Purdy and RB Christian McCaffrey in what became a surprisingly high-scoring (34-31) affair. Meanwhile, everyone is aware of the Chiefs offensive prowess with Mahomes behind center. More importantly, the Chiefs have got big performances from TE Travis Kelce in the playoffs after a somewhat subpar regular season. With Kelce performing at a high level alongside WR Rashee Rice and RB Isaih Pacheco, the Chiefs once again appear to have an offensive juggernaut.

With that said, these coaching staffs want to avoid the need for high numbers from their offenses. The reason the 49ers have been so successful under Shanahan has been the play of their defense, which is once again among the best in the NFL. Everyone knows the 49ers are a run-heavy team with a strong defense as their backbone. It’s part of the reason Purdy has received some hate this year for being a so-called “game manager” despite leading the NFL in nearly every efficiency category. Either way, the 49ers’ ideal game plan is to run the football and get a strong effort from the defense. Likewise and contrary to popular belief, the Chiefs have adapted a more similar script this season. Aside from Kelce and Rice, the Chiefs have struggled to find reliable targets in the passing game. As a result, the offense has often relied on the legs of RB Isaih Pacheco and the play of their stellar defense to set the tone. In fact, the Chiefs defense appears to be the unsung hero of this year’s playoffs, holding Miami’s dynamic offense to just 7 points in the AFC Wild Card and then holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to just 10 points in last week’s AFC Championship Game. Therefore, this game may have more value on the defensive side of the equation than casual bettors may realize.

Considering the fact the 49ers have led the NFL in interceptions for each of the last two seasons, I imagine the Chiefs will put a heavy focus on running the football. More importantly, Shanahan is an excellent strategic defensive mind and typically likes to drop linebackers in coverage because the defensive line is so disruptive with their pass rush. This will give extra help over the middle of the field against Kelce, and I’m expecting the Chiefs to utilize the running/screen/check-downs more often in this approach. Simply put, this will likely slow the game’s pace down, which is a pace the 49ers welcome. Additionally, I’m expecting the 49ers to also stick to their ground-heavy attack. Not only is that Shanahan’s preferred offensive approach, but the Chiefs have been vulnerable on the ground this season, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL. Needless to say, I think the pace of this game is going to be much slower than the betting line suggests, and if both defenses play to their potential given the match-up, this could be a surprisingly low-scoring style contest.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

• The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• The 49ers are 9-2 SU in the last 11 games.
• The 49ers have hit the “over” in 6 of the last nine games.
• The 49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Kansas City.
• The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in the last five games.
• The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in the last five games.
• The Chiefs have hit the “under” in five of the last six games.
• The Chiefs have hit the “under” in four of the last six games as the betting underdog.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Prediction

As alluded to above, this match-up is going to feature a slower pace, and I also believe both defenses are going to match up well against each other. As a result, I’m finding a lot of value on the “under.”

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 47.5