Super Bowl LVIII Pick: 49ers defense the difference?

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The San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas on February 11. It’s a heavyweight battle featuring a team in the 49ers that spent most of the season looking like the best team in the NFC, taking on the defending champions, the Chiefs. A lot of people didn’t see it shaking out this way on championship Sunday, when the Chiefs upset the Ravens, 17-10, on the road to make it to yet another Super Bowl, while San Francisco had to overcome a 24-7 deficit to Detroit to make it to this spot. Who will end up hoisting the trophy when it’s said and done?

The Difficulty of This Decision

It’s a pretty tough game to call. A lot of circular arguments will play games with the brain as one tries to arrive at a pick. This is actually a good game to have longer than a week to let the decision ruminate some more. When you see the Niners at home almost let the Lions run away with it while barely getting over the hump against Green Bay in the divisional round, it makes them seem vulnerable. And despite the Chiefs still having that pedigree and a better “D” helping them massively this season, they’ve also seemed dicey for much of the year.

Chiefs: Harder Than it Looks

The Chiefs have seen their “D” really take a step up this season, and unlike the Niners’ defense, they’ve seen it translate at the highest levels in the postseason, allowing just 41 combined points in three playoff games. Bettors have found themselves on the wrong side of things by placing too much credence on what appears to be a lack of offensive effervescence. And it’s true that with Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce, Mahomes really has just enough to squeak by, we can’t get too hung up on each team’s respective offensive war-chest. Because when Brock Purdy is working with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, most opposing offenses are going to appear deficient.

The true value in Kansas City can be seen in more-alternative ways. It’s more of an institutionally built-in level of excellence—a reliable winning football machine that has dialed into a formula so solid that different pieces can be shuffled about, and they still stay on top. They really aren’t the same kind of team that first achieved glory with Mahomes, yet they continue making it to this spot. If I were a potential San Francisco backer in this game, I’d find that more-worrisome that whatever levels of promise I would derive from the Niners having the bigger-name commodities on both sides of the ball.

But Not So Fast…

I think last week was a two-headed coin for the Niners, showing vulnerability by almost getting run off their own field by the Lions but also showing the ability to overcome. For all the good things Brock Purdy has done at the quarterback position for the Niners, it’s hard to remember him coming back from off the pace like that—showing the ability to reverse course when things are going off the rails. Before last week, you could say the 49ers were a great team, but that’s when things were going their way. Showing the ability to get it done after almost being swallowed up could go a long way in this spot.

When playing the Chiefs in a context such as this, an opponent has to brace for the possibility of things not going according to plan. We saw it last week when a Ravens team that had been cruising along suddenly hit a wall in the form of the Chiefs. Kansas City almost reminds one of Evander Holyfield. Opponents who were just laying everyone out would fight Holyfield, and the shots that leveled others would just bounce off him without effect. And front-running opponents who ran out of answers would just be left in the dust. I think the Niners showed last week that they have a different dimension and that if things get hard, they’re not just going to shrink up and disappear.

Matchup Issues

While it’s true that the 49ers’ defense has appeared more vulnerable in the postseason, they have been facing some of the better and hotter teams in the whole league. Mahomes’ experience in this spot is a weapon in itself, but this Chiefs’ offense is still a unit you’d think the 49ers could get the measure of or at the very least contain. It might be this SF defense’s best matchup of the postseason, with there not being a ton of guys to watch out for, as the Chiefs’ offense has mostly been run through three players—Pacheco, Rice, and Kelce. So far this postseason, the 49ers’ defense has been forced to quell Green Bay and Detroit—teams with a bevy of options on the ground and through the air.

The KC defense, meanwhile, hasn’t been facing those kinds of teams. And while the Ravens were the best in the AFC this season, it’s an offense that doesn’t have the same options as the 49ers do. The same goes for their other opponents in the postseason, where the Chiefs’ defense shined against offenses with more reduced scopes of success. That good Chiefs’ defensive line will be going against a really good Niners’ O-line, while their good defensive backs could be spread thin with the Niners wielding so many aerial options.

Lay the Points

Again, it’s a difficult game to call, and no one betting this game should have a big head after choosing a side. Betting against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in a Super Bowl is not a move that should be made cavalierly. I do suspect the Chiefs’ defense will have a big say in this one, but I think the Niners’ defense might make more of an impact, and in the end, it’s a little hard picturing a ton of points from the Chiefs. Not that I suspect the 49ers will be putting up a ton either, but I see them getting enough done to win and cover the spread in Super Bowl LVIII. I’m taking the 49ers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 2 points. Where are you betting the Super Bowl? Whether you’re betting it live (best platform on the planet!), wagering on props (they have the most!) or betting the side/total, Bovada Sportsbook is the BEST place to bet the Super Bowl! It’s where we play!