Super Bowl LVIII Best Bets

Best NFL Bets to Win Super Bowl LVIII

Let’s not kid ourselves—this is not an easy wager to make. You can pluck down a bet and follow a team all the way through the season and see them thrive just as you projected. Unless they win the whole thing, however, it’s all for naught. That’s why we generally like to make this wager just a part of our stance on a certain team, with a number of other bets that take less extreme stands, allowing us to still profit when a team we like surpasses expectations.

While we go through cycles of specific teams being at the head of the pack, it has been nearly two decades since we had a repeat winner of the Super Bowl. Last season, the Chiefs won their second in four years. Another curious tidbit is that in the last 25+ years, only Seattle has repeated as NFC champion—bad news for potential Eagles’ backers this season. It just shows there is a psychological element at play, with the proverbial Super Bowl hangover and the notion that things just turn over a lot in this league, making some reluctant to go back to teams with very recent Super Bowl exposure.

In this wager, the potential returns are great enough to warrant a mixture of bets. We like to be realistic about who will rise to the top while also leaving a little room for our more fanciful projections. Granted, there isn’t a ton of recent history of teams coming from absolutely nowhere to rise to the top, but it happens enough to warrant a little sprinkle on some long shots. Here are our picks to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LVIII. (All odds by Bovada)

Top Super Bowl LVIII Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (+600): Sure, you have the Super Bowl hangover quotient, in addition to some age and an offense that is lacking for some star-power behind Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. There still seems to be a lack of great analysis to justify how the longtime AFC West kingpins don’t make another deep playoff push this season. And while it’s a bit chalky, I’m not so sure having a +600 ticket on the Chiefs as they start their postseason run is going to feel that bad. There is a slew of hungry AFC teams looking to make a big push this season, so the landmines will be plenty in the playoffs, where having won it all last year could leave them with a motivation deficit. Still, this is a squad that is impossible to ignore in this context.

Philadelphia Eagles (+650): Again, it feels like we’re falling into a trap going back to a Super Bowl team from last season, but the Eagles gave the impression of a team starting something good, as opposed to a one-off. Their coaching is very good, and youngsters have delivered, in addition to many of their other signings and draft picks. Both sides of the ball are exceptionally solid; they’re deadly in the trenches, along with a young core of stars who still have upward mobility. There is also the issue of unfinished business after a painfully-close attempt at glory last season. Maybe not winning that game sets up better for this season, where one should expect a hungry Eagles squad to continue what they started in a massive 2022 season.

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San Francisco 49ers (+900): The Niners made it pretty far last season without a ton going right. One can imagine some better luck on the injury front, a more-crystalized QB situation, and all that depth could pay off. With Christian McCaffrey there for a whole season, they have ample juice on offense for Brock Purdy to take this offense to new heights. Some returning difference-makers on defense being healthy could transform an already-good unit. Again, they weren’t that far off last season, showing how resilient they’ve become to setbacks that just completely derail other teams. That potential upside and ability to overcome adversity make this an appealing choice at a +900 price.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1100): We like the value on a Cincinnati team where youth is on their side, with little reason to forecast them receding to the rest of the pack. Joe Burrow has shown a nice postseason flair, with only the Super Bowl champion Chiefs able to nip the Bengals in the AFC Title game last season, their second straight trip to that spot. Still, in search of Super Bowl glory, the hunger will still be there, along with an offense bursting in aerial talent with three really good receivers. Their defense has become a dependable force, and this is the window for the Bengals to do some serious damage.

Our Favorite Longer Shot Picks

New York Jets (+1400): Maybe all-time great Aaron Rodgers can do what Tom Brady did when he went to Tampa. It’s not just the promise Rodgers brings, as the Jets seem to be for real with an influx of difference-makers on both sides of the ball. Rodgers should bring more out of them. If they can get Breece Hall back on track, the talent Rodgers will have at his disposal is massive. It’s not the easiest landscape in which to thrive, as the Jets still have a ways to go before even surpassing Miami and Buffalo in their own division, never mind both conferences. But if you are looking for a team that is just underneath the main group of obvious contenders, the Jets seem the most likely to take flight this season.

Detroit Lions (+2200): I suppose one would ideally want better than 22-to-1 for correctly predicting a Detroit Lions Super Bowl win. Fair enough. But they spent the bulk of the latter stages of 2022 serving notice that they might be the NFC’s fastest-rising team. Coach Dan Campbell has seen his vision start to pay off, with Jared Goff looking more like his old self last season. They hope rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs or maybe David Montgomery can give this offense more consistent backfield production, along with a WR corps that really started to deliver last season. The NFC North is as weak as it has been in some time with the exodus of Aaron Rodgers, setting up for the Lions to get into the postseason and perhaps make an unexpected push.

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