Super Bowl LIX Predictions & Picks: Jay’s Best Bet

Kansas City Chiefs (17-2 SU, 8-10-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3 SU, 13-7 ATS)
NFL Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview
Date/Time: Sunday, February 9th, 2025, 6:30PM (EST)
Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA.
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: KC -1.5/PHI +1.5
Moneyline: KC -125/PHI +105
Total: 49.5

On Sunday, February 9th, the Kansas City Chiefs will collide with the Philadelphia Eagles inside Caesars Superdome for an epic Super Bowl LIX match-up. Throughout the season, the Chiefs and the Eagles have been the best teams from their respective conferences and are just one win away from becoming NFL champions. Philadelphia is led by the #1 pass defense in the league and by a dynamic running game on the offensive side of the football with RB Saquon Barkley, who is on the heels of one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. Needless to say, Philadelphia has shown championship-caliber performance on both sides of the football and will be mere 1.5-point underdogs against the back-to-back Super Bowl Champions.

The Chiefs will have the opportunity to rewrite the NFL record book by becoming the first team in history to win three straight Super Bowls. To date, eight teams have won back-to-back Super Bowls, but every one of those former teams has fallen short of the elusive 3-peat. However, many people feel that Kansas City is destined for this historic accomplishment. The Chiefs have pulled out numerous close wins throughout the season, and QB Patrick Mahomes is already considered one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever played the game despite still being relatively young in his career. With those things considered, it may be the defensive play of the Chiefs that decides the outcome of Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans!

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Analysis

Despite the offensive prowess shown by Philadelphia with Saquon Barkley and QB Jalen Hurts throughout the season, the Eagles’ defense has been really stout throughout the 2nd half of the season. In fact, the Eagles have only given up more than 23 points once since week 1 and have stood strong against some of the top offenses in the NFL in each of their playoff appearances. As everyone knows, the Chiefs are led by QB Patrick Mahomes and creative play calling from Head Coach Andy Reid. However, the Eagles match up very well against the Chiefs’ receiving corps, led by aging veterans TE Travis Kelce, WR DeAndre Hopkins, and WR Hollywood Brown. With the possible exception of WR Xavier Worthy, the Eagles present a very tough match-up for the pass-happy Chiefs offense that has been much less efficient than in previous seasons.

For that reason, I expect the Chiefs to have difficulty moving the football and creating scoring opportunities. In fact, I would not be surprised if Andy Reid puts a heavier focus on the running attack in this match-up to create opportunities down the field for Mahomes. While that may seem pessimistic for Kansas City, the Chiefs’ defense has also played extremely well throughout the season. Before last week’s 32-29 victory over the Bills in the AFC Championship, the Chiefs’ 1st string defense had held opponents to less than 20 points in each of their last six games. More importantly, during that time period, the Chiefs’ defense has emerged as one of the best run-stop units in the NFL, and the No. 1 key to their quest for a 3-peat will be stopping the Eagles running attack and Saquon Barkley. Much like Kansas City, the Eagles have been far less efficient through the air this season, and I think that bodes well for Philadelphia’s chances on the defensive side of the football.

Kansas City vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends

• Kansas City is 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games.
• Kansas City has hit the “under” in six of the last eight games.
• Kansas City is 18-2 SU in the last 20 games.
• Kansas City is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games against Philadelphia.
• Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• Philadelphia has hit the “over” in four of the last six games.
• Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in the last five games.
• Philadelphia is 8-0 SU in the last eight games against AFC opponents.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Prediction

As noted above, I feel like the difference in this Super Bowl LIX match-up will be decided on the defensive side of the ball. I don’t see this match-up turning into a shootout and would be surprised if either team hits the 30-point mark. In previous Super Bowls, the “under” has hit in 5 of the last six games, and I think that will be the case again this year!

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 49.5!