Super Bowl 57 Odds: Latest Betting Lines and Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs (16-3 SU, 6-12-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (16-3 SU, 10-9 ATS)
Super Bowl LVII
Date/Time: Sunday, February 12, 2023 at 3:30PM EST
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
TV: Fox

Point Spread: KC +1.5/PHI -1.5 (Bovada)
Over/Under Total: 51

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. It’s a massive heavyweight matchup between the two top seeds in each conference, each entering this with 16 wins in 19 games, including the playoffs. A narrow 23-20 win over the defending AFC champion Bengals punched the Chiefs’ ticket to this, their third Super Bowl appearance in 4 seasons. This incarnation of the Eagles is newer to the spotlight, though the franchise did hoist the trophy five years ago. It’s a game where there are a lot of different interpretations, so let’s break it down!

How to Break Down This Game

I think this matchup calls for a more straightforward football analysis. The side storylines, like Reed returning to his longtime stomping grounds in Philly, probably won’t affect the bottom-line. This comes down to football. But both teams are in somewhat different stations in life. The Chiefs are the now perennial AFC contenders, the hallmark team of this early part of the 2020’s. After going 1-1 in their first two trips to the big dance, the Chiefs are now looking to become repeat winners and put a stamp on their clear-cut greatness. But just because the Eagles are relatively new to this under this coaching regime doesn’t mean they’re not cut out for this. And you have to really respect the turnaround they made and all the moving pieces required to make it work. They didn’t finagle their way into this thing, as notice was served early this season that they were indeed for real.

Not Being Misguided by Perception

While the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and have been a top team for several seasons, people might better identify with the different facets of the Philadelphia football machine. QB Jalen Hurts really came around this season, and the roles are clearly spelled out on a balanced offense. He has the two top receivers with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, a good tight end in Dallas Goedert, a strong run-game with himself and Miles Sanders, and a nice supporting cast, to boot. On defense, they have a mean pass rush, led by Haason Reddick and his 19.5 sacks, along with the league’s best secondary providing stout coverage and game-breaking playmaking. It’s an easy team to get behind from an analytical standpoint, with all the pieces right where they should be.

With the Chiefs, the formula for success is a little less clear, at least on paper. They can do damage on the ground, but it’s not nearly as eye-opening as what Hurts, Sanders, and the Philly run-game does week to week. And while it’s hard to say a team with Mahomes and his 5771 passing yards, the top-ranked aerial offense in football, is being overlooked, the identity of who delivers for them at the receiver position from week to week is anyone’s guess. Outside of Travis Kelce, there isn’t anything identifiably-reliable on their offense aerially, as it’s more an offense with a lot of mouths to feed, as opposed to one with a lot of star power.

I think looking at it like that could be a mistake. It’s true that we’ve seen a more-subdued Chiefs team this season. Their six covers in 19 attempts would attest to that. The fireworks are fewer. But then we look up and see a top-seeded AFC team in the Super Bowl. So, in the end, how damning is it really that their receiving corps has more of a cabaret feel to it? How much does it matter that Philly has more standout defensive stats and perhaps a higher abundance of stars on that side of the ball? Sure, there might be more about the Eagles to get behind. Those arguing on behalf of the Eagles this week might win the debate on paper. You’re still talking about a Chiefs team that lost only three games all year, never by more than 4 points, while getting through a very tough AFC. They’ve been here, and they know what it’s like.

How the Chiefs Can Pull it Off

It’s a tough task, and you can see why people might be dubious. The Chiefs are not really as electric offensively, and the one thing they do best is what the Eagles defend the best—the air attack. There is damage that can be done with the Kansas City backs and maybe Clyde Edwards-Helaire can lend some help, as he is due to return. But this is a spot where the Chiefs will need to rely on the greatness of Patrick Mahomes. And while this is a tough matchup aerially, his greatness, along with the automaticity of Kelce, could make it possible to do damage on a massive scale and open things up for the less-celebrated members of this Chiefs’ offense.

Sure, the Chiefs’ defense can’t match up with Philly’s in terms of stats this season. But they have been playing better. You almost get a sense the Chiefs are so used to the trajectory of these championship-type seasons that they know just when to peak. And after holding Cincy to 20 last week, we’re seeing that battle-tested Kansas City big-game defense coming into form. They’re not great and can be exploited, but come this time of the season, it’s never quite as easy as it would seem for opposing offenses to feast on this group. They know both what it’s like to win and come up short in this spot and could provide deeper resistance than some suspect

Take the Dog

Granted, one and a half points isn’t much relief on the mind, but I think the Chiefs could pull this out. Granted, to go against the Eagles would mean you’re almost denying what you’ve been looking at all season, which is a versatile and balanced football product that looks all the part of a champion. I just think this is where it gets super hard. And while you don’t want to be backward and hold the ease in which the Eagles have done it against them, this could be a time where experience and being tempered by the fires of battle can help. Between the Chiefs’ recent history, along with what has happened this season, I just suspect they might be better suited to the crunch-time moments a game like this provides. I’ll take Kansas City.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs plus 1.5 points.