Prop Bets for Super Bowl LII
By Scott, Predictem.com
Prop Betting in the Super Bowl requires a different approach. The amount of different stances you can take ramps up exponentially for the Super Bowl and every year the amount of different bets you can make seems to get even bigger. Any position that you can possibly take on the game is covered. There is hardly any stance on Super Bowl LII where there is not a prop bet to accommodate it. Here are some of the props we thought had some upside. Some might contradict each other and we don’t recommend betting all of these. It’s just of all the prop bets offered, these struck us as having some of the better value on the board.
With Super Bowl LII prop bets, take a thoughtful and selective approach, be disciplined, and put yourself in position to make a big score with some long-shots here and there. Prop betting is an inexact science. Figuring out what will happen in a composite sense in a game is hard enough without having to pin down certain details. In other words, don’t go crazy on the props. At the same time, with the innumerable amount of props being offered, there will be some opportunities to pounce. Here are some we liked:
(Odds Courtesy of 5Dimes)
Prop Bet: Offense scores all TD’s -225
TD not scored by offense +185
Pick and Analysis: With the playmaking on both defenses and the special teams snafus that seem to surface often in Super Bowl play, one could be justified in betting on a touchdown coming from a source other than offense in this one and at +185, it’s a pick that might have some value.
Prop Bet: PHI total sacks made o/u 4½ -115
NE total sacks made o/u4½ -115
Pick and Analysis: The Eagles really get after quarterbacks and apply a ton of pressure. Their sacks totals this season, however, were not that high. Not all pressure results in actual sacks and with the ability of the Patriots’ O-line and Brady’s ability to sense the rush, I think 5 sacks is a little high for the Eagles and I’ll go under at -115.
Prop Bet: Tied after 0-0 after any kick/conversion +110
Game not tied after any kick/conversion -130
Pick and Analysis: The game naturally starts as a tie, but if after it’s 0-0, a competitive-looking game has the looks of one that will again be tied at some point, whether it’s early in the game or later in the contest. At a slight underdog price, my feeling is that a tie-score will occur at some point in the game.
Prop Bet: National Anthem over 120.00 seconds -180
National Anthem under 120.00 seconds +140
Pick and Analysis: This one is for degenerates only. To be down before the game even starts isn’t something a lot of people can stomach. And it’s not like this is something one can accurately handicap. The singer Pink will be doing the Anthem in this game. Though a seasoned performer with a lot of experience, the guess here is that she’ll rush it enough to get under the two-minute mark at an underdog price of +140. It’s a nice feeling to be up before the game even starts and even if we lose, there are still other bets that can make up for it.
Prop Bet: Score in first 2:00 +892
No score in first 2:00 -1361
Pick and Analysis: Granted, the idea of a team scoring in the first two minutes is a little bit of a reach. It’s unlikely a team will be pinned back enough to put a safety into play. And a field goal drive isn’t going to manifest in two minutes. But weird things can happen and a +892 price makes this prop worth a whirl.
Prop Bet: Either team wins by 3, 7, 10, 14 or 17 points +190
Winning margin not 3, 7, 10, 14 or 17 points -230
Pick and Analysis: We like this bet. You get the most-common margins of victory in pro football at 3, 7, 10, 14, and 17 points and it applies to both teams. It could easily not go that way, but at an underdog price, getting those margins on both sides seems to have some solid value, at least by prop bet standards.
Prop Bet: PHI wins by 1-12 points +261
Any other result -321
Pick and Analysis: If you like Philly to win the game straight up, a point-margin of 1-12 points seems to be how it would go down. Sure, they could lose or shock the world and win by a big margin. But if you like the Eagles, a +261 price for this range of points is pretty solid.
Prop Bet: Winning margin over 23½ points +748
Winning margin under 23½ points -1163
Pick and Analysis: A lot of times in the Super Bowl, what appears to be a close game gets a little wild. We have seen some close Super Bowls in recent years, but we might forget a lot of them weren’t good games, with one team more or less running away with it. And a +748 price for that to happen with either team isn’t altogether bad betting value.
Prop Bet: Clock time after 1st score 8:00 – 8:29 +1325
Any other time on clock / no 1st qtr pts -2225
Pick and Analysis: Granted, this is a small window of less than 30 seconds. But how often have we watched a game when the first score happens with about this much time remaining in the first quarter? It happens a lot, right? Even for being this exact, the price is actually pretty tantalizing at +1325.
Prop Bet: T.Brady or N.Foles wins Super Bowl MVP -307
Field wins Super Bowl MVP +254
Pick and Analysis: In MVP voting, the “field” refers to any other player than the ones listed. We won’t pretend that a quarterback on the winning team isn’t the most-likely to garner MVP honors. But with all the difference-makers on the field for Super Bowl LII, +254 isn’t a bad price for anybody other than Brady or Foles.