Sunday Night Football Pick: Buffalo Bills to Cover the Spread?

New York Giants (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, October 15, 8:20 PM EST

Where: New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY

TV: NBC

Point Spread: NYG +13.5 / Buf -13.5 (Bet it free! Get a 100% bonus up to $500 when you deposit, go to the special offers page at Everygame Sportsbook and enter bonus code PREDICTEM)

Moneyline: Gmen +575 / Buff -900

Over/Under Total: 49.5

The train wreck that is the New York Giants 2023 season will be on display for all to see Sunday Night when Brian Daboll takes his squad to Northwest New York to take on the Bills. Sportsbooks must be trying to figure out how big this spread should be, and BOVADA.LV has settled on making the G-Men 13.5 point underdogs and setting the game total at 49.5. This spread isn’t high enough for me. I will gladly lay the big number and back Buffalo. Here is the handicap.

The Bills Offense Will Roll

Josh Allen and his teammates have been a little hot and cold to start off the 2023 campaign but have rolled over bad defenses. They averaged 41 points in their three games against the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins while struggling a little against the Jets and last week in London against the Jags. They are 3rd in the league in points scored and yards per play and 4th in passing yards. Allen and the offense have turned the ball over six times in their two losses but only one in the three wins. James Cook has emerged as a three-down weapon in the backfield, able to move the chains on the ground and make big plays in the passing game. Gabe Davis has rebounded from a weak 2022 and is again providing Allen an alternate downfield weapon opposite Stefon Diggs. I think Buffalo rebounds after laying an egg last week against Jacksonville and comes out hot against the Giants. Allen has only been sacked nine times on the season and will have plenty of time to find his targets and get the ball in the endzone.

Regarding the Giants’ defense, they are really bad. They have allowed the 4th most points in the league, have the second worst yard per play against in the league, and have only taken the ball away three times on the season, and have the fewest sacks in the league despite blitzing at a high rate. Last week, the Dolphins had 524 yards of total offense, and two weeks ago, when the Bills and Dolphins faced off, the Bills had the better offense. It’s hard to imagine what New York could do in the week between the Dolphin beat down and this Sunday Night that would help them contain this Bills attack. I envision Buffalo putting up 40-plus on Sunday Night, and the only thing that could slow them down is their own coaches taking their foot off the gas sometime in the second half.

NewYork’s Offense Is Also Bad

The Giants attack ranks 31st in points scored, last in yards per play, have thrown the 5th most interceptions, and taken the most sacks in the league. Their rushing stats are a little better but are skewed by Daniel Jones scrambling numbers. Making matters worse this week, Jones is not expected to play with a neck injury, leaving Tyrod Taylor to lead the attack. Taylor was a competent backup about five years ago when he was a strong runner and competent passer, but now he is neither. His offensive line is a sieve that will give him no time to look downfield, and he doesn’t have the speed to outrun pass rushers and linebackers. Even if he has time, New York doesn’t have a receiver other than tight end Darren Waller, which causes any defense to be concerned. Saquon Barkley should return that will help the running game, but he can look forward to 8 man fronts and little help from his O-line. The Giants average only 15 points per game, and I don’t see how they get much more than that this week.

Buffalo’s defense is definitely an elite unit that will overwhelm the Giants’ offense. They are better than the Miami and Seattle defenses that completely dominated New York. Buffalo leads the leagues in sacks and will face little resistance from the Giants O-line. The Bills have been a little suspect against the run and lost a key leader in middle linebacker Matt Milano last week. This week they will be able to sell out to stop Barkley and the Giants running game, and they should have success. I expect the Bills to get a quick lead, and before the first half is done, the Giants are so far behind that they abandon the run. In five games, New York has played one good half of offensive football, the second half against the Cardinals. I don’t think they have their next good half in Buffalo.

Can They Cover The 13.5 Spread

It’s not rocket science to expect the Bills to have their way with the Giants, but the spread is as big as we see in the NFL – so will Buffalo cover? I think the Bills keep their foot on the gas and bury the Giants. Buffalo’s three wins this year have been by at least 28 points, so when they get the upper hand, they won’t back down. On the other hand, New York has yet to cover a spread this year and has lost four of their five games by more than 14 points, and now they are playing with their backup QB. There is always a chance that we get hit by the unexpected, and the Giants play the game of their life, but I think that is a very low probability. I think the Bills jump out early, keep piling it on, and the Giants will never get their offense in gear. I think Buffalo wins by 20 and easily covers the 13.5 number.

Play The Bills

Don’t worry about the big spread. Play the Bills to cover on Sunday Night Football.