Steelers vs. Ravens Wild Card Predictions & Picks
Game Details
When: 8 pm ET Saturday, Jan. 11
Where: M&T Bank Stadium
TV: Prime Video
Forecast: Temperature around 30°, chance of light snow
NFL Betting Odds
- Point Spread: Steelers +10 / Ravens -10
- Money line: Steelers +390 / Ravens -530
- Total: 43.5
Market opened Ravens -9, O/U 46
The Ravens and Steelers meet for the third time this season, this one the 3-vs.-6 AFC wild card match-up Saturday night in Baltimore.
A month ago, Pittsburgh, at 10-3, led the AFC North by two games and a tie-breaker over the 8-5 Ravens. Things changed a bit since then, though, as Baltimore won its last four games while the Steelers lost their last four.
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Season Overview
Steelers’ Path
Pittsburgh went off this season with uncertainty at the quarterback spot, playing against a wins O/U of 7.5. The Steelers started 4-2 with Justin Fields at QB, averaging 21 points per game. After inserting Russell Wilson, they won six of their next seven games, including victories over Washington and Baltimore. However, the schedule toughened, leading to four straight losses and a drop to 14 PPG.
Ravens’ Journey
Baltimore, facing a wins O/U of 11.5, exceeded expectations despite an 0-2 start. After winning five straight, including victories over playoff teams Buffalo, Washington, and Tampa Bay, they finished strong by winning their final four games by an average score of 34-11.
By the Numbers
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Offense: 319 ypg (127 rushing)
- Wilson-led games: 331 ypg
- Last five games: 260 ypg
- Defense: 327 ypg allowed (99 rushing)
- Strength of Schedule: 14th (Sagarin)
Baltimore Ravens
- Offense: 425 ypg (League-best 188 rushing)
- Defense: 324 ypg allowed (League-best 80 rushing)
- Strength of Schedule: 11th (Sagarin)
- Last four games: 34 ppg scoring average
Key Trends & History
- No. 3 seeds are 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS vs. No. 6 seeds since playoff expansion
- Steelers: 4-3 SU/ATS vs. playoff teams (-4 ppg)
- Ravens: 7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS vs. playoff teams (+11 ppg)
- Head-to-Head: Steelers have won 12 of last 17 meetings
- 2024-25 Meetings:
- November: Steelers won 18-16
- December: Ravens won 34-17 (220 rushing yards)
- Totals: Under is 8-1 in last nine meetings
Free NFL Wild Card Betting Pick
The contrast in momentum couldn’t be clearer: Baltimore has won four straight while Pittsburgh has lost four straight. The Ravens’ offensive surge (34 PPG in their last four) stands in stark contrast to the Steelers’ struggles (14 PPG).
Baltimore has out-gained and out-rushed Pittsburgh in both meetings this season, and we expect that trend to continue, perhaps by a wider margin. Their superior record against playoff teams and recent 34-17 victory over Pittsburgh provide a blueprint for Saturday night.
Pick: Ravens -10
Projected Score: Ravens 34, Steelers 17
