Steelers vs. Ravens Predictions: NFL Week 16 Picks & Analysis

by | Last updated Dec 21, 2024 | nfl

Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

NFL Week 16: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

Date: December 21st, 2024

Time: 4:30 PM ET

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium

Weather: Cold at 33°F, winds 19 mph (gusts to 32 mph), minimal precipitation chance

Weather Impact Analysis

Game conditions:

  • Temperature drops from 33°F to 29°F
  • Strong NW winds 13-19 mph with gusts to 32 mph
  • Clear conditions (only 1% precipitation chance)

Wind will be the primary weather factor, particularly affecting deep passing and kicking games in Baltimore’s stadium bowl design.

Current Betting Lines

Spread: Ravens -6.5 (-115)

Moneyline: Steelers +250 / Ravens -300

Total: 44.5

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The Rundown

We’ve got a classic AFC North showdown with major playoff implications here. The Ravens bring their league-leading efficiency into a frigid M&T Bank Stadium, where they’ll face a Steelers team that just keeps finding ways to win ugly. The numbers tell us Baltimore’s the better team, but Pittsburgh’s already shown they can grind out a win in this matchup – they did it just last month in an 18-16 field goal fest.

Key Numbers That Matter

Ravens’ Offensive Edge

  • 6.9 yards per play (#1) – nobody’s been more efficient
  • 74.07% red zone TD rate (#1) – they finish drives
  • 48.73% third down rate (#2) – they keep the chains moving

Ground Game Battle

Here’s where it gets interesting: Ravens are ripping off 5.7 per carry while Pittsburgh’s struggling at 3.9. In a game where the wind’s howling at 19 mph with gusts over 30, that rushing efficiency becomes huge.

Turnover Watch

Pittsburgh’s been a takeaway machine (+1.3 per game), but Baltimore’s been one of the league’s best at protecting the football (just 0.7 giveaways/game).

Situational Analysis

Pittsburgh has been exceptional ATS recently, covering 7 of their last 10 games. However, the Ravens present a unique challenge – they’ve held opponents to just 3.3 points in the first quarter (6th in NFL) while Pittsburgh averages only 3.4 points in the opening frame (22nd).

Key Scoring Patterns

Pittsburgh 4th Quarter: 7.2 PPG (10th)

Baltimore 4th Quarter Defense: 9.5 PPG (31st)

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Field Goal Factory

Pittsburgh leads the NFL in field goal attempts (41.0) and made field goals (38.0), converting at a 92.7% rate (3rd). This suggests drives are stalling in scoring position – a crucial factor when evaluating the total.

Passing Game Analysis

Russell Wilson’s recent performance shows volatility:

  • Last 3 games: 700 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs
  • Completion percentage dropping (76.3% to 57.7% last two games)
  • YPA fluctuating significantly (10.9 to 5.8)

Market Analysis

Early sharp money has pushed this total down from opening numbers, likely keying in on these defensive metrics and the weather impact:

Previous Meeting Keys:

  • 9 total field goal attempts (7 made)
  • Both teams under 330 total yards (BAL 329, PIT 303)
  • 4 combined turnovers
  • 13 combined penalties for 125 yards

The situational metrics strongly favor another defensive struggle

The Bottom Line

Predicted Score: Ravens 24, Steelers 20

Look, Baltimore’s the better team on paper – that’s clear from the numbers. But this is Steelers-Ravens in December with playoff implications. It’ll be close, it’ll be physical, and it’ll probably come down to who handles those swirling winds better on key plays. Baltimore’s edge in the run game and red zone should be just enough to cover, but don’t expect it to be pretty.

Best Bets

⭐⭐⭐ Ravens -6.5 (they’re the more complete team and it shows in the efficiency numbers)

⭐⭐ UNDER 44.5 (winds, rivalry history, and these defenses are no joke)

⭐ First Half Under 21.5 (these teams typically feel each other out early)

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