Steelers vs. Rams Betting Preview & Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-3 SU, 4-1-1 ATS)

Week 7 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 22, 2023, at 4:05 PM EDT

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California

TV: Fox

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: PIT +3/LAR -3 (If you bet parlays, make sure you’re playing at a bookie that offers the best parlay odds on the web!)

Money Line: PIT +145, LAR -170

Over/Under Total: 44

The Pittsburgh Steelers come to SoFi Stadium on Sunday for a face-off with the Los Angeles Rams. The Steelers are sitting at 3-2, rested after the bye-week, which followed a 17-10 win over the Ravens. They look to go to 4-2 on the road in a tricky spot against the 3-3 Rams. Despite many people burying them in the preseason, the Rams have been tough, pushing their record to 3-3 with a 26-9 win over Arizona last week, and having failed to cover the spread just once so far this season. Who can get it done this week at SoFi?

Keys to the Game

On the surface, the most compelling part of this matchup is the Los Angeles offense with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and others going against a Pittsburgh defense that is largely responsible for the Steelers sitting above .500 heading into this game. On one hand, we’ve seen a Rams’ offense operating pretty well and getting a big boost from the return of Kupp, who has hit the ground running. With a big surprise receiver Puka Nacua in there, along with other weapons, Matthew Stafford has some avenues to success at his avail and has shown he still has something left in the tank. On the other hand, it’s not an offense that is immune from putting forth a clunker from time to time. Stafford is on the downside of his career. To top it off, RB Kyren Williams, coming off another big game, will likely miss this game, leaving the state of their backfield in some peril.

There is certainly a chance that Stafford finds himself in a groove and starts connecting with Kupp and the rest of a talented receiver corps. What might be more likely, however, are the prospects that this sudden lack of balance on the Rams’ offense costs them against a stout, smothering, and playmaking Steelers’ defense on Sunday. The pass-rush is immense and comes from different sources, namely TJ Watt and his eight sacks. The secondary can also be disruptive, and the entire defense is adept at capitalizing on any mistakes, and Stafford already has five picks this season. It’s just an angle that prospective Rams backers have to entertain this week.

But Not So Fast…

With how the Rams have overperformed this season and in light of their against-the-spread record, it seems a combination of factors have combined to make them a little better than what it looks like on the surface. And getting Kupp back and producing already only bolsters that. Whether it’s their coaching, the spirit of Stafford, their receiving talent, Aaron Donald, or whatever it is, they avoid sinking to the level many had in mind for the ’23 Rams. Now, that defense is a problem and they’re facing even more personnel issues on what is really a no-name defense outside of Donald. But they still haven’t been getting embarrassed and when in the right spot, they can actually look pretty good. Why wouldn’t a home-game against a Pittsburgh offense averaging a little over 15 points a game be one of those right spots?

The Rams’ offense has its own issues and doesn’t always fire on a given week. They can make mistakes and undermine the whole effort. But at least there’s the potential for fireworks. What kind of point total can you righteously expect out of the Steelers this week? You have a suspect starting QB in Kenny Pickett, the occasional big game from George Pickens, and little else upon which you can hang your hat. The run-game is more or less a non-impactful mish-mosh. Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth are missing time. And the offensive line is not thriving, either with protecting Pickett or in springing a run-game. This could be a nice spot for Donald this week to get unhinged against this Steelers’ front.

A Tough Call to Make

Making this equation difficult is the lack of dependability in the key areas upon which the result of this game is hinged. And when analyzing the Rams’ offense, along with the Steelers’ defense, neither is the most-solid proposition. We see the Steelers’ defense having played well 2-3 times, along with a couple off-days in there, as well. If Houston can get off on this defense, so can the Rams. So, while it looms as the main thing the Steelers can wield in the game, there’s nothing iron-clad about it. You’d expect a rested Steelers’ defense to register here and at least make some big plays, but a home Rams offense isn’t an easy matchup.

By the same token, there is no guarantee that a vintage Rams’ offense surfaces this week. For all their firepower and the return of Kupp, they are handcuffed with the absence of Williams if he is in fact out of action. And we’ve seen Stafford throw more than one TD in just one game so far this season. Going against this rested Steelers’ defense might not provide the best spot for the Rams to showcase what they do best. And Rams backers have to brace for the real possibility that Stafford is going to be up against it this week.

Take the Points

In a game with a lot of give-and-take in the breakdown, maybe opting for defense isn’t the worst move. Not having Williams for this game might be an underrated factor for the Rams, and while production can still ensue aerially, this might not be a great day overall for the Rams’ offense. Points are a big issue and getting behind this Steelers’ offense is not easy to do with all that firepower on the other sideline. But it’s still a spot where the Steelers’ offense can get the higher-end of their spectrum to appear, which I think is going to be enough to keep them in this game, as they leave SoFi with the cover on Sunday. I’ll take the Steelers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers plus 3 points.