Steelers vs. Colts Predictions: Can Pittsburgh Stay Perfect?
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2, 2-1), 9/29/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 29
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: CBS
Betting Odds
NFL betting odds: Pitt -1.5 / Ind +1.5
Money line: Pitt -125 / Ind +105
Over/Under: 40
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Steelers, one of five teams still alive in this season’s “last to lose” pool, shoot for a 4-0 start when they visit Indianapolis to take on the Colts Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh, with a question mark at the QB spot to begin this season, went off at odds of around +6000 to stand as the last unbeaten team in the League. After three weeks, that bet comes down to the Steelers, Chiefs (+800), Bills (+1000), Seahawks (+6500), and Vikings (+7000).
Meanwhile, Indianapolis just removed itself from the “last to win” pool with a victory over Chicago last week.
The Colts beat Pittsburgh rather soundly last season; can they do it again Sunday?
NFL Betting Line
The NFL Week 4 betting market opened Pittsburgh at -1.5 for Sunday, with an O/U of right around 39.5. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.
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Steelers-Colts Betting Preview
Pittsburgh is 3-0 on the season after defeating the Chargers last Sunday 20-10. The Steelers, favored by 2.5 points, spotted Los Angeles the first seven points of the game and still trailed 10-7 at the half. But Pittsburgh won the second half 13-0, as the defense clamped down, to claim the W.
The Steelers out-gained the Chargers 346-166, out-rushed Los Angeles 114-61, and recorded five sacks.
On the prop board, Pittsburgh QB Fields threw for 245 yards, which played way over his yardage O/U, which was 160.5. Also, RB Harris ran for 70 yards, which played over his rush total of 52.5.
Pittsburgh opened this season with an 18-10 win at Atlanta, out-rushing the Falcons 137-89. The Steelers then won at Denver 13-6, out-rushing the Broncos 141-64.
Maybe winning the ground battles means something in the NFL, eh?
Pittsburgh went off this season playing against a wins O/U 7.5 and those of us who backed the over are feeling pretty good right now.
Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
Meanwhile, Indianapolis just picked up its first victory of the season, 21-16 over Chicago last Sunday. The Colts drew first blood on a Jonathan Taylor touchdown in the second quarter, later led 21-9, and held on for the win and the cover at -1.5.
Indy actually got out-gained by the Bears 395-306 but out-rushed Chicago 150-63 and turned two of three take-aways into touchdowns.
On the prop board, Colts QB Richardson threw for only 167 yards, which played under his passing total of 193.5. But Taylor ran for 110 yards, which played over 72.5, and his two touchdowns paid off at +350.
Indy opened this season with a 29-27 loss to Houston, then fell at Green Bay, which was playing with its backup QB, 16-10.
Indianapolis went off this season playing against a wins O/U of 8.5. But if Richardson doesn’t start progressing – he’s completing just 49 percent of his passes this season, with six interceptions – the Colts will have trouble matching last season’s nine victories.
Steelers-Colts Recent History
Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis eight meetings in a row from 2011-22 but the Colts broke through last season and beat the Steelers also at Lucas Oil Stadium 30-13. Gardner Minshew quarterbacked Indy that day against Mitch Trubisky for Pittsburgh.
That game sneaked over a total of 42.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are just 23-24 SU, 20-26 ATS this season.
- Favorites are 29-19 SU, 22-25 ATS this season.
- Home dogs are 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS this season.
Totals Report
- Unders are 3-0 in Steelers games this season, which are averaging just 26 total points.
- Unders are 2-1 in Colts games, which are averaging 40 points.
- Unders are 27-20 in the NFL this season.
Prop Bets
Pittsburgh RB Harris, who ranks 6th in the League in carries with 55 but is without a touchdown, is catching +120 to score one TD, +600 to score two.
Indianapolis WR Pittman, who leads the team in targets with 20 but is without a TD, is catching +260 to score one, +1800 to score two.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Pittsburgh is winning the old-fashioned way; running the ball, hitting a big play now and then, and playing good defense. We love it. Indianapolis, meanwhile, after ranking 24th in total defense last year, ranks 31st so far this season. Also, Fields is responsible for one turnover this season, Richardson for six. Finally, we expect the Steelers to win the ground battle in this game and teams that win the ground battles are 34-14 SU, 31-16 ATS this season. We’re playing Pittsburgh.
