Steelers vs. Browns: Week 12 NFL Picks and Predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS)
NFL Football Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, November 21, 2024 at 8:15 PM EST
Where: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, Ohio
TV: Prime Video
Betting Odds
Point Spread: PIT -3.5/CLE +3.5
Money Line: Pitt -195/Clev +165
Over/Under Total: 36
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Thursday Night Football features a big AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. We see the Steelers looking good through ten games, sitting pretty at 8-2, atop the AFC North division. On Sunday, they handled another divisional foe in a tough 18-16 win over the Baltimore Ravens at home. They take to the road on a short week to battle a Cleveland team that is suffering at 2-8 and lost badly on Sunday to the Saints, 35-14, but are a little more dangerous with Jameis Winston behind center and look to maybe catch the Steelers sleeping in this spot. Let’s break this one down!
Food for Thought
Both meetings between these divisional rivals are backloaded to the second-half of the season, this being their first faceoff of the season. If everything were more or less going routinely and it was Deshaun Watson at QB for the Browns, this would seem to play out as a very routine win for the Steelers, regardless of their headspace. Winston and his ability to draw a little more out of the talented pass-catching core that the Browns possess could at least provide a different wrinkle. And whereas the Saints unleashed on this beleaguered Browns’ defense last week, maybe they can get better results at home in this divisional spot against a typically more-subdued Steelers’ offense.
The Steelers are doing very well. With a lot of that being a testament to their defense and coaching, however, the recipe is perhaps more delicate than it is with other teams in premier spots heading into week 12. Not that there is anything wrong with having a nose for wins or being able to manufacture and cultivate victories. And they also have a decent number of more-lopsided wins, as their 8-2 record against the spread will attest. It’s still a team with a Russell Wilson-led offense that can fall flat and, in many ways, aren’t ideal in the role of road-favorite.
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Being Realistic about Cleveland
After showing some spunk in a nice win against Baltimore, Winston and this Cleveland offense has faltered a bit the past two weeks. Against the Chargers a few weeks ago was one thing, with their defense being among the best in the conference. But to come off the bye last week and take on what had been a rough-looking Saints’ defense, albeit in a foreign locale at the Superdome, and come up with two TDs was a bad look. Again, Winston was productive, with almost 400 yards through the air. And that alone at least gives them an edge they didn’t have before with Watson. It didn’t lead to much success overall these last couple of weeks, and this isn’t a defensive matchup where you’d imagine them thriving, but it at least gives them an X-factor appeal they didn’t previously have.
The issue is that there isn’t much else holding up well on this Cleveland team as the season progresses. A defense that wasn’t that great to start the season has seen various personnel issues, and increasingly bad form renders them a ramshackle unit heading into the final third of the season. The 35 points they gave up to the Saints on Sunday was New Orleans’ first good day on offense since week two. They were remarkably bad against the run, and even against a Pittsburgh offense that can hit low notes that is on the road on a short week is no easy task for this Browns defense.
Which Steelers Will We Get?
It seems weird to put it this way with a team that is both winning straight-up while also being a hit in a betting sense. But there is still a range you can get week to week with the Steelers. You can get the team that lays it on thick against bad teams like the Raiders and the Jets or the team that grinds out narrow wins. And at their worst, they can be pretty bad, with their two losses of the season being upsets to teams that are currently below .500. When you’re on the road and expected to win with a little room to spare, you like to see a pretty clear path to glory. Sure, the Browns’ defense can continue to stink, while a Cleveland offense that hasn’t been putting points up continues to do so against a good defense. In that case, a median version of the Steelers would likely suffice.
Despite their record and predicament, I’m not certain the Browns are exactly mincemeat at home in a divisional game against a team that sometimes doesn’t deliver offensively. If their defense continues to nosedive, there isn’t much that can save them. But after a hard-fought game last week, is this a spot where you’d bank on seeing a peak Steelers team? Maybe it is, but in light of their opponent’s standing, in addition to the grind they were in last week, could it better set up for a spot where the Steelers are more or less content to grind this one out?
Take the Points
A stance on Cleveland even in these conditions requires a leap of faith on a few different fronts. One is that their defense is able to do something other than just be out there taking up space. They are going to need some plays, and seeing CB Denzel Ward finally register a pick last week was promising. They’ll need all that they can get. I think the extra pop we’ve been seeing from Winston and this offense, mixed results aside, gives them at least some hope to stay within range of a Steelers’ team that might be a bit lethargic. I’ll take the points in this one.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the Cleveland Browns plus 3.5 points.
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