Steelers vs Browns Week 11 Prediction: Levinson’s ATS Pick & Forecast

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)

The Pittsburgh Steelers come to Ohio for an AFC North faceoff with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Both teams are surpassing expectations at 6-3 in a division where everyone is over .500. The Browns scored a really nice win on Sunday, kicking a field goal with time running out to beat the Ravens, 33-31. The Steelers also scored a nice win in a close game, beating the Packers 23-19 on Sunday. Which one of these teams can score the big divisional win this week?

Hidden Effectiveness

We see two teams at 6-3 defying what most people associate with good teams. There are some well-known guys on both teams, but most of the star-power is on defense. People tend to focus on offense. Neither team has a guy who is really having a giant year on offense. If anything, Steelers QB Kenny Pickett is looked at as being generally subpar, with it hard to overstate the disappointment the Browns must have for big-money signing Deshaun Watson, who is now ridden with constant injuries with a bad shoulder and now an ankle again.

When looking at either team, it’s important to go more off-the-grid, to take coaching into account, look at what’s going on in the trenches, and things of that nature. Offensively, nothing will really jump off the page, nor will it really tell you the story of either team. Their week two game this season attests to that, a 26-22 win at home for the Steelers. Offensively, it was give-and-take. Cleveland was actually better, running the ball really well with some good work from Watson. But with two defensive touchdowns and a slew of sacks, it was too much for the Browns to overcome, with the Pittsburgh “D” winning the day.

Decent Spot for the Browns?

First, we need to verify Watson’s presence this week. Disappointment or not, it doesn’t get better when he’s not in there. With all they’ve been through with Watson missing time and Nick Chubb on the IR, they’ve been doing well. They can look back and realize if not for a comedy of errors and misfortune against Pittsburgh in the first game, that was a win they should have had in their column. They also know at home, their own defense can take a bigger hand in things. With Myles Garrett leading the way, getting to the QB is something they can do impactfully. Their secondary is among the stoutest in the league. This isn’t an easy spot for Kenny Pickett and a Steelers offense that hasn’t surpassed 26 points all season.

We see a Cleveland team able to put up points in spite of their liabilities. There was the 20 they put up against Seattle a few weeks ago, but other than that, we see 39 against Indy, 27 against Arizona in a shutout, and 33 last week. All this, and no one is really putting up crazy numbers. They get a big assist from a defense that can also find the end zone from time to time. Against Indy, when they scored 39, is a good case-study when 178 yards of passing and 71 from RB Jerome Ford was all it took. In other words, with this Cleveland team, an assessment of their individual offensive pieces doesn’t do justice.

What to Expect

The total says it all at 37, where a grinding type of game is forecasted. I’d be inclined to expect slightly more offense, as it’s easy to get almost hypnotized by the lack of overt firepower on either side. Still, it’s hard to find a pairing where you have defense as such a huge part of the equation. These are offenses you’d see on 3-6 teams, with superior defenses making them 6-3 teams, so it’s easy to get carried away with the defensive narrative. Pittsburgh has already shown they can take over this matchup with “D,” and maybe now Cleveland is thinking it’s their turn.

At root, this is a poor matchup for either offense, but for some reason, the Pittsburgh offense’s hopes seem a bit bleaker. They’re again going to need a total game-changing performance from their defense against a good Browns offensive line that knows it’s coming and that will be at home. Without that, it’s hard to imagine Kenny Pickett taking over this spot against this good Cleveland secondary, with a run-game that likely won’t come close to being a game-changing element of this game. Cleveland has shown they can run the ball in this matchup and even without Chubb, Jerome Ford had a big game in their first matchup and Kareem Hunt is coming around to speed. Browns’ pass-catcher Amari Cooper is the best receiver on the field, and ditto goes for Cleveland TE David Njoku. I see their offense as having the better chance to thrive in this spot.

Take the Home Favorite

It’s not just the Steelers’ four-point win over Cleveland in week two with seemingly everything falling their way. There is no guarantee it won’t happen again, with Watson more mistake-prone than he has been typically in his career and his health being an issue all season. At home, with things not likely to go as fortunately for the Steelers, I think we see some more-reliable offensive weaponry for the Browns register better in this spot. This is also a divisional spot at home that should give rise to a closer-to-peak Cleveland defense than what we saw in their first game. I like the Browns in this one.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Cleveland Browns minus 3.5 points.

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