Steelers vs. Broncos ATS Prediction: Fields vs. Nix in Week 2

The Pittsburgh Steelers, with a strong start of 1-0, travel to Colorado to face the Denver Broncos on Sunday at Mile High. The Broncos, on the other hand, had a tough start, coming up short, 26-20, in the NFL debut for QB Bo Nix. The Steelers, with a solid win in Atlanta in week one, are now back on the road, looking for a nice 2-0 start in what seems like a winnable spot. Their past performance should give you confidence in your betting decision. Who should we get behind this week?

Quarterback Issues

For the Broncos, they know who their guy is—rookie Bo Nix. Game one was a mixed bag, but mostly a pretty crummy NFL debut. He had that late-game rushing TD that was too little, too late. He threw no TDs and two picks. And sure, being on the road against a playmaking Seattle defense is probably a bad time to do a true assessment, but early returns are not good for a team that is in a decade-long spiral of trying to find the right guy behind center. Still, any concrete takeaways would be rash.

The Steelers had to deal with some late shuffling, as projected starter Russell Wilson is dealing with a calf injury. It’s times like these where they’re happy to have another established starter in the wings with Justin Fields. And while a lofty appraisal of the Steelers’ offense is not in order following a zero-touchdown performance, Fields was efficient and solid, still flashing those lively legs and getting what he could against a tough home-Atlanta defense in week one. And it doesn’t hurt to have dependable Chris Boswell, who hit six field goals to seal it.

What to Expect This Week

I think it’s fair at this early stage in the week to list Wilson as being an underdog to start this week for the Steelers in what would have been an interesting matchup against the team he just departed. The question is, at this point, does the Steelers’ offense take a step back with Fields instead of Wilson? That’s up for debate. Certainly at this stage in each man’s career, Fields is the more dangerous players with his legs, though Wilson could get more out of this offense aerially. But there’s a reason Chicago got rid of Fields, with his win on Sunday lifting his record as a starter to just 11-28. Still, with different stuff around him and Mike Tomlin coaching him up, who’s to say he can’t turn over a new leaf in Pittsburgh, as he is a very talented guy. But to be going into Mile High this early in your second road game to start the season at least makes for a tricky spot.

Still, what really stands out as far as quarterbacks in this matchup is the prospects of the jittery rookie Nix going against this Pittsburgh defense. We got a little taste on Sunday of what’s to come for Nix, with TJ Watt looking to do damage, along with the rest of a playmaking defense that got two picks and a recovered fumble against the Falcons in what was another tricky spot for them last week. Again, the career trajectory of quarterbacks teaches us not to lock in perceptions after one game, but it’s safe to say if Nix does come around, it might be a gradual thing that needs some time to unfurl. Being at home and now acclimated to the new level he’s at, maybe he can show some better form, but on the surface, it doesn’t really seem like an ideal time for that to occur.

Tough Case for Denver

When considering betting on Denver this week, it’s important to note that it’s back-to-back road games for the Steelers, and the altitude of Denver could be a factor. However, you have to get down the list pretty far before you talk about things that Denver actually does well and that you can count on in this spot. But there are some things—namely an improved secondary that could make life hard on a guy like Fields, who struggles to find aerial success in general. This should make you feel cautious about your betting decision. When you think of the Steeler’s offense having to rely on the run, Fields offers some promise, but the RB package of the Steelers isn’t always thrilling with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. But in essence, with a stance on the Broncos, you’re banking on “D” and how this is a tough place to play where maybe the Steelers fall flat. It’s just not a very positive outlook. But it’s still something we’ve seen play out before, particularly with non-elite teams like the Steelers that don’t fire every week.

Lay the Small Number on the Road Favorite

Make no mistake, it’s not hard to envision a nip-and-tuck battle in this game where scoring is precious and a Justin Fields-led Steelers offense just falls flat in this altitude in their second road-game to open the season. The total of 36.5 attests to a certain level of offensive futility you can reasonably project in this game, where even a 3-point spread will be more formidable than it seems. And that all seems totally reasonable until one really ponders the scope of possibilities surrounding this Bo Nix vs. Pittsburgh “D” matchup, which I think can make up for some of the Steelers’ potential issues on offense they face this week. I like the Steelers to create enough separation to get the win and cover this week at Mile High. I’ll take Pittsburgh.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus 3 points.