Snore Bowl Pick: New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders

New England Patriots (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS)
Week 6 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 4:05PM EDT
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: CBS

Point Spread: NE +3/LV -3 (Bovada – 50% credit card bonus or 75% cryto from the best bookie!)
Money Line: NE +145, LV -170
Over/Under Total: 41

The New England Patriots come to Allegiant Stadium on Sunday for an AFC battle with the Las Vegas Raiders. On MNF, the Raiders were able to steer a 17-13 victory in their direction at home to move to 2-3. It was hardly electrifying, but they’ll take the win after suffering three straight losses. The Patriots weren’t as fortunate last week, absorbing a 34-0 drubbing at the hands of the Saints at home, depositing the Pats into week six at 1-4 and looking about as ragged as we can remember them being in recent memory. Can the Pats rebound and put up a fight or are the Raiders looking at an ideal spot to get to .500 this week?

Silver Lining with the Patriots?

In a sense, there could be some good value after they just lost their last two games by a combined score of 72-3. Two close losses against Philly and Miami, with a 15-10 win over the Jets was a normal enough start to the year for the Patriots, but the last two games, diminishing returns all around, and QB Mac Jones repeatedly getting the hook doesn’t bode well. We hear a lot of anti-Belichick rhetoric heating up and it’s sometimes easy to overstate things, especially in this week’s context against a squad that has their own issues.

Even with that said, it is looking ugly. Jones is not getting better. Lead back Rhamondre Stevenson has been virtually invisible after a promising 2022. Not that there aren’t teams who wouldn’t want Kendrick Bourne, but as a number-one receiver, he doesn’t exactly fit the mold. An offensive line that was holding up well through a few weeks has started to fall off some. Mistakes and turnovers are providing obstacles they’re not built to overcome. But since there are things to clean up and morale on the Patriots is as low as it has been in decades, there could be some good-value angles coming up soon. Whether them being +3 on the road in this spot qualifies is up for debate.

Defer to Offense?

The Raiders defense is nothing to brag about, but the Patriots can’t really talk after these last few weeks, although the mistakes on their offense made them look worse than they are. For all the Raiders’ personnel issues on the defensive side of the ball, however, they haven’t been that bad other than Buffalo putting up 38 on them. But alas, they are not great. When looking at the two teams, what really stands out is the Raiders’ offense. And sure, that rings a little empty when they open the season scoring 16, 10, 18, 17, and 17 points in their first five games. While consistent, it’s hardly enough to make you worried about their offense.

Still, with the steady hand of Jimmy Garoppolo, elite wide receiver Davante Adams, and RB Joshua Jacobs, they have the superior pieces at most viable positions. Even now having New England’s best receiver in Jakobi Meyers as their number-two piece speaks to this offense’s superiority. Garoppolo is not an elite QB, but he is a winner and a proven starter in this league, while Mac Jones’ career is in peril. And Jacobs hasn’t been exciting, but one might recall that it was around this time last season when he started going on a spurt with some huge games. At home with a chance to go to 3-3 against a defense that hasn’t been impactful in weeks might be a good spot for him to start serving notice this season.

What to Expect Sunday

A lot of this comes down to the Patriots. Where do they turn from here? You’d figure some professional pride surfaces, some institutional quality, coaching, something. But even if you’re a Belichick apologist, no coach without horses can make much of a go at it in this league. They were operating on a fine line to begin with, but with their “D” taking some tough injuries, two receivers taking concussions last week, and general dysfunction starting to permeate all aspects of this team, a surge now is hard to picture. Optimism is difficult to summon on either side of the ball. Even when keeping in mind that right now is an easy time to get carried away with the “New England is terrible” narrative with the dichotomy of now versus a few years ago and these recent hammerings in mind, it’s hard to find positivity.

The Patriots have some hope and it’s not a very positive outlook, but it still exists. And that’s simply who they are playing—a team favored to beat them by three that is averaging 15 points a game and change. Maybe even a beleaguered New England defense can come in here and do what every other Raiders’ opponent has managed this season and keep them from hitting the scoreboard with regularity, while cleaning up mistakes on offense and ending up right in this game.

Lay the Number

While not wanting to make the square play, I think taking New England this week might qualify as trying to be too cute. I understand the drawbacks of the Raiders in this spot. I just sense that in a game that might be a mish-mosh at times, having Adams and Jacobs will make the difference. And while it might not come off as swimmingly as Raiders’ backers are hoping it does, I see it surfacing with enough regularity to get the Raiders a nose ahead at the finishing line at home for the win and cover on Sunday. I’ll take the Raiders.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Las Vegas Raiders minus 3 points.

Defer to Offense?

The Raiders defense is nothing to brag about, but the Patriots can’t really talk after these last few weeks, although the mistakes on their offense made them look worse than they are. For all the Raiders’ personnel issues on the defensive side of the ball, however, they haven’t been that bad other than Buffalo putting up 38 on them. But alas, they are not great. When looking at the two teams, what really stands out is the Raiders’ offense. And sure, that rings a little empty when they open the season scoring 16, 10, 18, 17, and 17 points in their first five games. While consistent, it’s hardly enough to make you worried about their offense.

Still, with the steady hand of Jimmy Garoppolo, elite wide receiver Davante Adams, and RB Joshua Jacobs, they have the superior pieces at most viable positions. Even now having New England’s best receiver in Jakobi Meyers as their number-two piece speaks to this offense’s superiority. Garoppolo is not an elite QB, but he is a winner and a proven starter in this league, while Mac Jones’ career is in peril. And Jacobs hasn’t been exciting, but one might recall that it was around this time last season when he started going on a spurt with some huge games. At home with a chance to go to 3-3 against a defense that hasn’t been impactful in weeks might be a good spot for him to start serving notice this season.

What to Expect Sunday

A lot of this comes down to the Patriots. Where do they turn from here? You’d figure some professional pride surfaces, some institutional quality, coaching, something. But even if you’re a Belichick apologist, no coach without horses can make much of a go at it in this league. They were operating on a fine line to begin with, but with their “D” taking some tough injuries, two receivers taking concussions last week, and general dysfunction starting to permeate all aspects of this team, a surge now is hard to picture. Optimism is difficult to summon on either side of the ball. Even when keeping in mind that right now is an easy time to get carried away with the “New England is terrible” narrative with the dichotomy of now versus a few years ago and these recent hammerings in mind, it’s hard to find positivity.

The Patriots have some hope and it’s not a very positive outlook, but it still exists. And that’s simply who they are playing—a team favored to beat them by three that is averaging 15 points a game and change. Maybe even a beleaguered New England defense can come in here and do what every other Raiders’ opponent has managed this season and keep them from hitting the scoreboard with regularity, while cleaning up mistakes on offense and ending up right in this game.

Lay the Number

While not wanting to make the square play, I think taking New England this week might qualify as trying to be too cute. I understand the drawbacks of the Raiders in this spot. I just sense that in a game that might be a mish-mosh at times, having Adams and Jacobs will make the difference. And while it might not come off as swimmingly as Raiders’ backers are hoping it does, I see it surfacing with enough regularity to get the Raiders a nose ahead at the finishing line at home for the win and cover on Sunday. I’ll take the Raiders.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Las Vegas Raiders minus 3 points.