SNF Picks: Ravens vs. Jaguars Spread & Total Predictions

Baltimore Ravens (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, December 17, 8:20 PM EST
Where: TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fl.
TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Bal -3. / Jax +3.5
Moneyline: Bal -185 / Jax +160
Over/Under Total: 44

It’s an AFC playoff preview when the current top-seed Baltimore Ravens head to Jacksonville to take on the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level while Trevor Lawrence is nursing a high ankle sprain, leading BOVADA.LV to make the Ravens 3½ point road favorites and setting the game total at 44. The play is to lay the points and trust Jackson to cover the number. Here is the handicap.

The Ravens Are Red Hot

Baltimore comes into this game having won eight of their last nine games. Jackson and OC Todd Monken are refining their offense, now without star tight end Mark Andrews. Last week against the Rams, Jackson threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns while running for an additional 70 yards. Zay Flowers has emerged as Jackson’s primary target, especially in key situations, and should have a big night on Sunday. OBJ played his best game since joining the Ravens, stretching the field to go for 97 yards and a touchdown on just four receptions. Isaiah Likely is athletic enough to fill Andrews’ shoes and did just that against LA. The trio, along with Nelson Agholor, give Jackson a plethora of targets that the Jags defense will have to deal with. The Ravens are also utilizing a new weapon out of the backfield in Keaton Mitchell, a speedster that can take any play to the house. Baltimore’s offense is the most diverse in the AFC, and the Jags will not be able to cover all of the weapons while keeping an eye on Jackson in the pocket.

Jacksonville’s defense is nothing special. They rank 21st in points allowed and 26th in opponents yards per play. They have Josh Allen, who is a premier pass rusher but still ranks 27th in the league in sacks. There is no reason to believe that the Jags can slow down Lamar and the Ravens. Over the last two weeks, Joe Flacco and Jake Browning have led offenses to 65 total points and almost 900 total yards on the way to two victories against the Jags. Look for Baltimore to stay hot on offense, score on both sustained drives and shock plays, and easily get into the 30s on Sunday Night.

The Jags Offense Can’t Keep Up

Lawrence showed his toughness last week taking the field against the top-shelf Browns with the high ankle sprain, so we should expect he does the same this week. He led the offense to four touchdowns, though one was in garbage time. Lawrence had to take the field without Christian Kirk, who had been his favorite target. Kirk is on IR, so he won’t play again this week, leaving a gap in the middle of the field. Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones have both been inconsistent all year, and last week caught only 9 of 27 targets. TE Evan Engram picked up the slack left by Kirk, going for 95 yards and two scores. He will be a primary target again on Sunday Night, but the Ravens defend the tight end position as well as any team in the NFL. Travis Etienne has proven serviceable running the ball, but coach Doug Pederson shows little interest in leaning on the running game.

Baltimore will show up in Jacksonville with the 2nd rated defense in points allowed and league-best defense in yards per play. The Rams gave Baltimore more trouble last week than anyone else has all year, so Pederson may find some nuggets to add to this game plan. The Ravens lead the league in sacks and should be able to overpower and out-scheme a very suspect Jaguars offensive line. I don’t think the Jags and a hobbled Lawrence can replicate the Rams’ performance last week. I think Baltimore will shut down Engram and Ettienne in the passing game and force Jacksonville’s outside receivers to beat them. With little time to let routes develop, Jones and Ridley won’t win consistently on the outside. Jacksonville will not get shut-out, but they can’t keep pace with the Ravens offense.

Baltimore Keeps Their Foot On The Gas

Many times, we see NFL teams get leads and then get conservative and give up a back door cover. Since the strength of the Ravens offense is their running game, they keep banging it and piling on to the score. Nine of the Ravens’ ten wins this year have been by more than 4 points, so when they win, they win by a comfortable margin. This week should be no different. Baltimore’s running game is more explosive with Mitchell, who can take advantage of the Jags defense in the 4th quarter when they are tired, or Gus Edwards powering up the middle. The Ravens are the best in the league at bleeding the clock and then getting points to close out drives. Justin Tucker may not still be the best kicker in the NFL, but he is money in the 4th quarter, which should also keep the Ravens above the number.

Play The Ravens

Let’s ride with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to cover the 3.5 point spread in Jacksonville. I also like Over 44.