SNF Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs (7-2 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS)

Week 11 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, November 20, 2022 at 8:20PM EST

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California

TV: NBC

Point Spread: KC -7/LAC +7 (Everygame – Enter bonus code PREDICTEM on their “Special Offers” page after making your first deposit of $100 to $500 and they’ll match you dollar for dollar with a 100% REAL CASH bonus!)

Over/Under Total: 50

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium in an AFC West battle on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs moved to 7-2 last week with a 27-17 win over the Jaguars and find themselves in a familiar position atop of the AFC West division. The only team that could conceivably give them a run is the Chargers, fresh off a 22-16 loss on Sunday Night Football last week to the 49ers that dropped them to 5-4 on the season. Now back at home, can the Bolts hold down the fort or are the Chiefs ready to roll on Sunday night?

Looking Back…

We’re coming to a part of the season where we’re seeing divisional team rematches. A week two Chiefs win over the Chargers, 27-24, in Arrowhead was typical of what you can expect to see when these teams have matched up the last few seasons—a close competitive game that often times comes down to the end in games where there is usually a lot of offense. In week two, the Chargers almost got there on the strength of a strong showing from Justin Herbert, but his aerial power has been sapped by personnel issues costing him his two best targets. Kansas City pecked and poked their way to victory, with some clutch plays by Patrick Mahomes late and a big pick-six steering things in their direction. Taking a game from week two too seriously could be a mistake, but the Chargers have shown they can hang with the Chiefs more than once recently.

Edges for the Chargers

While at 7-2 and with an offense that is still the top-scoring unit in the NFL, it sounds strange to dwell on the Chiefs’ offense and their lack of star-power outside of Travis Kelce and, of course, Mahomes. They now have a cabaret approach where different guys can step up in different games, It’s a very unconsolidated offense, but still one that is very productive despite being one-dimensional in some aspects. They’re not very adept at running the ball, but the variety of their aerial attack makes up for it. Now with Kadarius Toney, they have even more options to wield. But against a deep Chargers’ secondary, we already saw that approach work not so well once this season. And maybe the dominance of Tyreek Hill was a bigger threat against this group than 4-5 pretty good receivers who don’t all always deliver.

In recent matchups between these two squads, we’ve seen the KC defense suffer aerially against the Chargers. Justin Herbert has put together some good games against this bunch. Part of you wants to defer to that, but how close are they to that same aerial offense that has given so many issues to the Chiefs? With Mike Williams out, Keenan Allen struggling to get back on the field and a questionable tag for Gerald Everett, it’s only fair to wonder. Clearly, guys like DeAndre Carter and Michael Bandy aren’t going to bridge that gap, even if Josh Palmer has distinguished himself over the last few seasons filling in for Williams or Allen. And with it hard to run the ball against the Chiefs, one wonders if the Chargers can rely on the creative use of Austin Ekeler to get them over the hump against what is still a vital KC offense.

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Better Spot for the Chiefs?

Even with the run-game not being a big part of their overall offensive outlook, the Chiefs made some headway in that area against the Chargers in their first game. It’s an area of massive struggle for the Chargers. And even if the Bolts have the excuse of injuries, this whole “D” has underachieved to some degree. A big-name secondary has been impactful in spots and ho-hum in others. With Kansas City having seen some receivers make some headway since their first game, they look to pour it on more this week after Mahomes had a so-so game in their first meeting. But they’re also dealing with some injuries in the receiver category, with Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster both questionable for this game.

There is also the simple issue of reliability. When getting behind the Chargers in a spot like this, you have a pretty good expectation that they hang in there well with the Chiefs. But on a given week, it can all come crashing down. Their respective ATS records almost suggest the opposite. But while the Chiefs have had some closer games than what was expected, where they still won, the Chargers are the team that seems more likely to underperform. Even after getting blasted 38-10 at home against the Jags, we’ve seen them have to go to overtime to beat Denver, lose by two TDs at home to Seattle, and scrape by Atlanta before losing by 6 to the Niners last week, recipients of a cushy 8.5-point spread. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have won five of their last six, with their only setback being a 4-point loss to Buffalo.

Take the Points

While the rationale is clear that a suffering Chargers’ aerial attack might be in deep in this game, along with a home spot that unfortunately isn’t much of a home advantage at all. If the Chargers can’t run the ball well, something that is a recurring theme this season, the reduced caliber of their aerial targets should resonate negatively. And while that’s true, I still think they have enough viable weapons with Ekeler, Palmer, and others to hang in there against a Kansas City offense that might also labor in establishing the run while being compromised in the aerial corps in their own right. I’ll take the Chargers and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers plus 7 points. Bet your Week 12 NFL predicitons for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!