SNF Pick: Miami Dolphins at Philadelphis Eagles

Miami Dolphins (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, October 22, 8:20 PM EST

Where: Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC

by Keith Allen, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: Mia +2 / Phil -2

Moneyline: Mia +110 / Phil -130

Over/Under Total: 52

We’re at the point of the NFL season when we can start calling games potential Super Bowl match-ups, and Sunday Night will definitely be one. The high-powered Miami Dolphins travel to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. BOVADA.LV is making the Eagles 2-point favorites and setting the game total at 52. I’m looking for the Dolphins to keep the game close, cover the number, and maybe get out of Philly with an upset win. Here is the handicap.

Miami Can Throw On Philly

We are all aware that the Miami offense has been on fire this year. They are number 1 in the league in points per game, but more impressively, they are 1st in yards per play by almost two yards and 1st in yards per passing play by almost 1 yard. They have moved the ball and scored at will in every game, with the exception of the second half of the Bills game in week 4. Tua Tagovailoa is living the dream at quarterback, distributing the ball to probably the fastest group of playmakers ever assembled on an NFL team. Tyreek Hill proves every week that he is the most difficult player in the league to defend, and teammates Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert have the speed to make the Eagles pay if they only focus on Hill. Tua has only been sacked six times in six games, and keeping him upright against the Eagles’ pass rush will be the top priority for the Fins. Miami is going to have success on Sunday Night. The only question is how much the Eagles’ defense can slow them down.

Philly’s defense is a strong unit, but they have not been the elite group that they were last year. Their line is their strength, but injuries have weakened that strength, and their secondary is mediocre and has also been impacted by injuries. They have 20 sacks on the year but have faced some of the weakest offensive lines in the league. Rookie Jalen Carter has been their best rusher but didn’t play last week after being injured in practice, and it’s unknown if he will answer the bell this week. Philly has only two interceptions on the season, so they are not creating issues for offenses on the back end. When offenses can block the Philly front, they can have success, and I think with Carter out and other nagging Philly injuries, Miami will be able to hold their own in the trenches. The firepower the Dolphins bring to this contest will be too much for the Eagles to shut down. The Dolphins have scored 30 or more in four of their six games, and I think they get there against the Eagles.

Philly’s Offense Is Struggling To Put Up Points

Jalen Hurts has again been electric and has a strong supporting cast. They have moved the ball well but are stalling in the red zone. D’Andre Swift has plugged into the offense and provides a dynamic ball carrier to go with Hurts’ ability to also create as a runner and speed at the receiver position. They can be a patient offense and have proven they can sustain long drives, though they are bottom 5 in scoring touchdowns when they get to the red zone. Philly also has some offensive injuries, with the anchor of their vaunted offensive line, Lane Johnson, going down last week and questionable this week. Philly has played some good defenses, which has kept the pressure on Hurts and limited his ability to get the ball in the endzone. He faces a defensive mastermind this week in Dolphin DC Vic Fangio, but the pieces in Fangio’s scheme will have to play their best game of the young season this week.

Miami’s defense has had the luxury of playing with big leads most of the year, but still, they are bottom 10 in the league in points allowed. The Bills and Chargers put up big numbers on them, while the Fins have fared better against weaker foes such as the Patriots, Giants, and Broncos. Last week, the Panthers looked like world beaters against the Dolphins when they scored 14 points in the first quarter but only managed a garbage time touchdown after that. Miami is top-5 in the league in sacks, but a lot of that is predicated on their ability to be playing with a lead. Miami’s stop unit is getting better at running Fangio’s scheme each week, so I think they will keep up the pressure on Hurts and the Eagles’ attack, but they won’t shut them down. Fangio may confuse Hurts like the Jets did Sunday that could generate a couple of picks, but Philly is going to have some success.

Last Team With The Ball Wins

This game has all the feel of an Over game that will be won by the team that has the ball last. Miami’s offense has a big advantage against the Eagles’ secondary, and Philly’s offensive line has a big advantage against the Dolphins’ run defense. When we get a setup that we think comes down to the final possession, getting the points is the way to go. Miami has the best ATS record on the season, so they are being good to their backers. Miami can also score fast, so even if they get behind early, as long as they keep the game within a couple of touchdowns, they can always come back and cover or win. This game is also a good candidate to Tease the Dolphins up 6 points, where this leg would cover if Miami keeps the game within a touchdown.

Take The Points With Dolphins

This could be the most entertaining game of the 2023 slate. Grab some popcorn, and a cold beverage, and play the Dolphins and Over.