SNF Pick: Jets vs. Raiders Week 10 Prediction

New York Jets (4-5 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, November 12, 8:20 PM EST
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: NYJ -1.5 / LV +1.5
Moneyline: NYJ -120 / LV +100
Over/Under Total: 36

NBC’s best negotiators fought for the right to flex Sunday Night games to show premier games on their prime-time broadcasts, but for some reason, felt like we all needed to watch the Jets and Raiders play in prime time to close out the Week 10 Sunday NFL slate. BOVADA.LV obviously isn’t impressed with either of these offenses and has made the Jets 1½ point road favorites in this clash and set the over/under at a measly 36. I like the Jets to be the better team on SNF, win, and cover the short number in this ugly game. Here are three reasons.

The Jets D Will Swallow Up The Raiders Offense

Aidan O’Connell got his first NFL win Sunday against the Giants, but it will be a lot tougher challenge this week. O’Connell wasn’t tested last week since Daniel Jones went out early, and Vegas coasted to victory, but AOC took care of the ball and didn’t hurt the team. He had four turnovers in his start against the Chargers in week four while being constantly under duress, then through a pick in limited work against the Bears. O’Connell will have to prove he can handle a heavy dose of pressure this week, and I doubt he will pass that test. Josh Jacobs had a solid game against the G-Men, rushing for just under 100 yards. He is still averaging just 3.2 yards per carry on the season and looks to be overmatched this week behind a weak offensive line. Davante Adams didn’t do much last week, but O’Connell and Adams hooked up for eight receptions and 75 yards in the Chargers game, so we should expect Adams to be targeted early and often. He hasn’t had a touchdown since week 3, and the Jets defense will prioritize extending that streak.

The Jets’ defense will be the best unit on the field this week. They are far superior to the Raider defense, and neither offense is any good. The Jets have allowed the 6th fewest points in the league and 3rd lowest yards per play. They are top 10 in takeaways and 4th in the league in pressuring the quarterback despite the fact that they blitz at the lowest rate of any team in the NFL. O’Connell took seven sacks in his first start against the Chargers, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see NY match that number this week. This game will be about creating turnovers and giving the offenses short fields, and I think the Jets D has the best opportunity to do that. The Raiders’ bad offensive line held up against the Giants, but the Jets front will wear out this bad line, and O’Connell will not have time to throw. Barring the Raiders getting a short field, I can’t see them sustaining drives to score touchdowns this week.

New York’s Offense Will Find Their Spots

The Jets’ ideal game plan would be to run the ball or throw short passes on every down, utilizing Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, and Michael Carter. Hall has established himself as the lead dog, averaging well over five yards per carry and ten yards per reception on the season, and a threat to take any play to the house. Hall had a play of at least 25 yards in each of his five games prior to Monday Night and should be able to start a new streak this week. Quarterback Zach Wilson continues to be the model of inconsistency, which he will be as long as he keeps an NFL job. That inconsistency manifests itself by completing a couple of passes and looking good, followed by a bad pick or taking a bad sack. He has shown that he can make big plays when the game is on the line, but every pass is an adventure. He works to WR Garrett Wilson at every opportunity and will constantly be looking his way. I think the Jets will be able to move the ball with their ground game and hopefully protect Wilson better so he can protect the ball better this week. They need big plays or short fields to score touchdowns, but I think they get a couple this week.

The Raiders defense will be the weakest unit the Jets have faced this year. They allow the 7th most rushing yards per attempt and have given up over 100 rushing yards in seven of their nine games against a weak slate of offenses. Against the pass, the Raiders are a little better, but they are in the bottom 10 in the league in opponents’ completion percentage and have only one pass rusher – though Maxx Crosby may be the best pass rusher in the league. LV has only ten takeaways on the season, so Wilson and the Jets shouldn’t self-destruct like they did last week. It’s never pretty watching Wilson and the Jets offense, but I think they can break some big plays and get in the endzone in Vegas.

The New-Coach Hype Will Wear Off

Vegas was on a high last week after Josh McDaniels was fired and Antonio Pierce took the reins. The team hated McDaniels and celebrated by pummeling the Giants. After the game, they partied like they had won the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, McDaniels left the team without much talent. The emotional high that carried them last week was enough to beat a team with a bad defense led by Tommy DeVito, but it will take talent to win moving forward. The offense had it easy last week, but this week, they will face non-stop pressure that they don’t have the talent to compete with. This match is a big letdown spot for Vegas, while the Jets have a chance to redeem themselves on National TV after last week’s bad performance. Emotions won’t be enough this week.

Play The Jets

The play on Sunday Night Football is to lay the short spread with the Jets.

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