SNF Pick: Eagles vs. Cowboys Week 14 Predictions

Philadelphia Eagles (10-2 SU, 7-3-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, December 10, 8:20 EST
Where: AT&T Stadium, Dallas
TV: NBC

Point Spread: Phi +3½ /Dal -3½
Moneyline: Philly +150 /Pokes -175
Over/Under Total: 53

Here we go, kicking off the home stretch of the 2023 NFL campaign with a heavyweight NFC East battle between the Eagles and the Cowboys. Dallas is playing their best ball of the year, while Philadelphia is showing some cracks in the foundation. The game is in Jerry-World in Dallas, prompting BOVADA to make Dallas 3½ point favorites and the over/under 53. The play is to take the points with Eagles. Here is the handicap.

Philly Will Rebound

The Eagles are in the middle of a murderer’s row of games and had flirted with their second loss against the Chiefs and Bills before last week when the 49ers came to Philly and dominated the defending NFC Champs. Jalen Hurts and the offense had been struggling to get out of the gate in recent games but came out hot last week in the first quarter, only to settle for field goals on two red zone trips. Their vaunted offensive line held up well early in the game, but Hurts was under more and more pressure as the game wore on. The running game never got going, and it turned out ugly for Philly, but there is nothing broken about this offense. They can still bully most teams on most days. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are elite receivers, and their stable of backs can both break big plays and get tough yards. They are literally unstoppable on short-yardage plays and will rebound against the Cowboys this week. Tight End Dallas Goedert should return to the field this week, giving Hurts his favorite 3rd down target. I expect Philly to be able to block the Dallas front, which opens up the playbook. The running game will have enough success to keep the defense honest, and Hurts will be able to get the ball to his playmakers down the field. Seattle did it last week with lesser players, so look for Philly to do it this week.

It’s no secret that the key against the Dallas defense is to keep the pocket clean. Their back 7 isn’t elite, but when QBs are running for their lives, the secondary can capitalize to make big plays and change games. Seattle totaled over 400 yards, with 334 coming through the air, and Geno Smith was only sacked one time. The Philly offensive line is better than the Seattle’s, so we should expect Hurts to have time to throw. The Eagle skill players are very comparable to that of Seattle, so it will be tough for the Cowboys to match up. The Eagles offense should rebound this week in Dallas. They match up well and know how to move the ball against this defense.

The Dallas Offense Is On Fire

Mike McCarthy’s offense has everything in sync as we head into December. They have topped 40 points in 4 of their last six contests and could have done it against the Panthers had they not taken their foot off the gas. The only game they didn’t get close to 40 was week nine against the Eagles. Prescott threw for 374 yards but took five sacks and couldn’t make the big play when it was needed most. CeeDee Lamb is making a name for himself this year and had a big day in Philly. The big question for the Cowboys is will they be able to run, and how dedicated to the run will they be. They need the balance this week, and Tony Pollard is finally starting to look like the back we were expecting in 2023. But Pollard didn’t do much against the Eagles in their first match-up, so we’ll have to see if McCarthy sticks with the ground game.

Philly’s defense has been getting taken advantage of lately, with the 49ers embarrassing them at home last week. They have given up over 400 yards in 4 of their last five games but had done pretty well at keeping teams out of the endzone until the last two weeks against Buffalo and San Fran. The pass defense was shaky all year, but in the last three weeks the run defense is has been awful. They have faced strong opponents, but it won’t get any easier this week. I believe Philly’s defense steps up this week, led by their line. They have premier talent on the defensive line that hasn’t been living up to expectation. I think they know they can dominate the Cowboys up front, and I think they will do just that.

Can’t Trust Dak

Prescott has a lot of highlights in his career, but none of them are in big games. Instead, the bright lights always take their toll and Dak has yet to raise his game in those contests. Dallas got manhandled by San Francisco in week five the same way Philly did last week, but Prescott was the primary cause of that loss. Dak has a bad history of bad performances in big games going back years, so we should make him prove he can take the next step before we invest in him. It’s one thing to light up the Giants, Commanders, or Seahawks, it’s another to light up the Eagles with a national television audience and the Division Title on the line. Maybe this is Prescott’s time to plant his flag, but I need to see it to believe it.

Take The Eagles

The play on Sunday night is to take the field goal with the Eagles. The line implies Dallas is better than Philly, which we can’t believe until they prove it on the field. Especially with this line over a field goal, take Philly and the points. Bet your Week 14 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500! Here’s how: Signup at Everygame through this special link. Deposit $100 to $500. Go directly to their special offers page and enter bonus code PREDICTEM. Your sports betting account balance will double instantly!