SNF Pick: Cowboys vs. 49ers Expert Analysis

Dallas Cowboys (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, October 8, 8:20 PM EST
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Ca
TV: NBC

Point Spread: Dal +3.5 / SF -3.5
Moneyline: Dal +160 / SF -180
Over/Under Total: 45.5

We get an NFC heavy-weight fight on Sunday night, with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. BOVADA.LV is making the Niners 3.5 point favorites and setting the game total at 45.5. In this important game, I have a lot more trust in the 49ers than the Cowboys, so I will gladly give up the hook to buy a 49ers ticket. Here is the handicap.

San Fran’s Offense May Be The League Best

Coach Kyle Shanahan has always been considered an offensive savant, and it looks like now he has all the pieces to execute his attack. Brock Purdy has shown few issues related to his off-season elbow, but Christian McCaffrey is definitely the straw that is stirring the drink. CMC is averaging well over 5 yards per carry, over 8 yards per reception, and is touching the ball right at 25 times per game. He is the perfect back for Shanahan’s zone run and short passing schemes, and Dallas won’t be able to stop him. Purdy is one of the most efficient passers in the league, completing 75% of his passes, including last week’s effort of 95% completions against Arizona. Purdy doesn’t have the strongest arm, but he reads the defenses and gets the balls to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle in space, where they can rack up yards after the catch. SF is scoring on 67% of their trips to the red zone, making them one of the most efficient offenses through the first quarter of the season. They scored 30 in each of their first three games and then got to 35 last week, and even though this will be the best defense they have faced in the young season, I think they get to or top 30 again this week.

The Dallas defense has absolutely dominated 3 of their four opponents, holding the Giants, Jets, and Patriots to a combined 13 points. In their other game, the Cardinals dropped 28 on them. In the three blowouts, the games were out of control fast, allowing Dallas to be in pass-rush mode for basically the whole game. Of course, Micah Parsons is a top-three rusher in the league, leading the team to 14 sacks on the season and creating seven interceptions. The rushing defense was excellent in the three blowouts, but the Cardinals scampered for 222 yards in week 3, which may signal some problems this week. There is no way Dallas is blowing out the Niners, so their defense will have to play the run. SF’s offensive line is by far the best one that the Cowboys have faced this season, and I expect San Francisco to focus on running the ball and have a lot of success doing it. Dallas will not be in a position to pin their ears back and rush the quarterback, and Purdy will not make the same mistakes that Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, and Daniel Jones made.

Dak Is Hard To Trust

Because of the game scripts in their first four contests, we really don’t know how QB Dak Prescott will handle this season. In the close Arizona game, Prescott threw a bad pick in the 4th quarter when the Boys were trying to get back in it, then didn’t handle the post-game adversity very well. The offense has looked very good at times this year, with running back being Tony Pollard being the dual threat that he was advertised to be and the receivers being a little deeper with the addition of Brandin Cooks. But their once elite offensive line is not as good as it once was, and the group has struggled with injuries. Tyron Smith is continuously injured and may not play this week, but they did get two key pieces back last week in RG Zack Marting and C Tyler Biadasz. Mike McCarthy has taken over play-calling this year, and the team sits close to the bottom of the league in red zone efficiency. It’s early to blame that on McCarthy, but it’s not early to consider the possibility that his conservative play calling will hurt when the chips are on the line. I have no confidence in the offense as a whole or that Dak has exorcized his demons from last year. Therefore, I have no confidence that the Dallas offense will play their A-game on Sunday night.

This will easily be the toughest defense Dallas has faced this year. The Niners are in the top five in the league in both opponents’ points allowed and yards per play. Their pass rush has not been as dominant as we might have expected, taking QBs down only nine times on the year, but they still have Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave, that can take over a game down the stretch. They have five interceptions on the young season and could get 1 or 2 more on Sunday Night. I am looking for an inconsistent performance by the Dallas offense this week. They only scored 16 against Arizona, so I struggle to see how they can keep up with Purdy and Company if they have to score in the 30s.

SF Has The Cowboys’ Number

These teams have met in the playoffs each of the last two seasons, and San Francisco has won by seven and six points. San Fran can grind out long drives that finish with points, putting pressure on the Cowboys to have offensive success. The loss last year had pundits thinking Jerry Jones might fire the whole coaching staff, and although that wasn’t the case, the leaders in the Cowboys organization see this game as a must-win. The Niners are cool under pressure and more seasoned for this type of game. Although it is only week 5, this game will have significant implications for playoff seeding and who gets home-field advantage in January. I think McCarthy and Prescott will get tight if the game is close in the 4th quarter and make a mistake that we have become accustomed to Dak making.

Lay The Points With SF

I don’t see the Cowboys being competitive with the 49ers in the City By The Bay this Sunday Night. Play San Francisco.”