SNF Pick: Colts vs. Chiefs Analysis & Prediction

Indianapolis Colts (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date/Time: Sunday October 6th, 2019. 8:20PM (EST)
Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, M.O.
TV: NBC

Point Spread:IND +12/KC -12 (Bovada)
Over/Under Total: 57

Following a nail-biting win on the road in Detroit last week, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs return to Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday night for a primetime battle against the Indianapolis Colts as they look to remain unbeaten. Meanwhile, the visiting Colts will try to shake off an embarrassing 31-24 home loss to the Raiders last week that featured a poor defensive performance, critical turnovers, and missed opportunities. At 2-2 SU, the Colts remain in the thick of the AFC South race but will face their most difficult challenge to date in a road trip to Arrowhead. The Colts will be significant 12 point underdogs against the NFL’s most potent offense in a bad situational spot heading into Sunday night’s primetime event.

QB Patrick Mahomes looking for rebound effort against Colts

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes had his ”worst” performance of the season last week in Detroit completing just 57% passing without any touchdowns for the 1st time since week 5 of 2018. Mahomes still threw for over 300 passing yards and rushed for an additional 56 yards to help running backs LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams get the ball into the end zone on multiple occasions for a 34-30 victory. This week the NFL’s top quarterback will look to rebound in an opportunistic match-up against a Colts secondary that struggled to stop the likes of Derek Carr just a week ago.

Now I don’t want to belittle the Colts defense. I actually believe Indianapolis has one of the more underrated defenses in the AFC in terms of physicality. The problem that I foresee this week with Indianapolis is the lack of speed in the defensive secondary. It is the same problem we saw the Chiefs exploit in last year’s AFC Divisional Playoff game when they jumped out to a 24-7 lead by halftime before going into “conservative mode” during the 2nd half. The current Chiefs offense has speed at all of the skill positions with TE Travis Kelce, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Demarcus Robinson, and speedster WR Mecole Hardman. I believe Mahomes will be able to stretch the field early capitalizing on the speed in the passing game before allowing the run game to take over late. The NFL’s best scoring offense should have no problem reaching another 30 plus point scoring effort as they stretch the field with ease.

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Can the Colts keep pace?

The most pertinent betting question for this week’s Sunday night showdown is, can the Colts offense find a way to keep pace? Despite Andrew Luck’s program changing early departure, the Colts offense has remained serviceable. QB Jacoby Brissett has been solid completing 65% for 911 yards with ten touchdowns and only two picks on the season. Running back Marlon Mack is having a solid season on the ground and the expectations are that star WR T.Y Hilton will return this week after missing week 4 with a quad injury. I’m sure many will point to Brissett as the difference-maker this week and his ability to make plays down the field to keep pace with the Chiefs.

However, I don’t believe Brissett will be the difference-maker in this game. I think the Colts chances to keep this game close is to get Marlon Mack going in the running game. In the last two weeks, we have seen opponents shed light on how to attack this Kansas City defense. Baltimore running back Mark Ingram rushed for more than 100 yards and three touchdowns in a close loss. Then last week Lions’Lions’ running back Kerryon Johnson crossed the century mark and allowed Detroit to win the time of possession battle while limiting Mahomes’ chances with the football. By now, it should not be any secret. Keep the ball away from the Kansas City offense and limit their opportunities. The path to get that done is on the ground where the Chiefs have been vulnerable and where Marlon Mack’sMack’s performance will be critical towards determining the outcome Sunday night.

Colts vs. Chiefs betting trends

Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games against AFC opponents. Going back to 2018, the Colts have trended around the .500 mark both SU and ATS. The Colts’ most significant advantage is their head to head trends against the Chiefs. Indianapolis is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Chiefs and 7-2 ATS in their previous nine road trips to Kansas City.

Jay’s Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I know the trends say the Colts are the play in this situation but the bulk of those results stemming from the trends pertain to two completely different teams that will take the field this Sunday. At Arrowhead, I believe the Chiefs’ defense will stand tall and make the key stops. I expect Mahomes to have a good night. I also genuinely expect the Chiefs run game to take over as this game progresses meaning Kansas City could win all four quarters. Take Kansas City -12