SNF Pick: Bengals vs. Giants Over/Under Bet
When the Cincinnati Bengals face off against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, the scoreboard might not light up as much as the oddsmakers expect. Despite the Bengals’ recent offensive surge, several factors point towards a lower-scoring affair that could go under the total of 47 points.
The Case for Under 47
Giants’ Elite Pass Rush
- Giants lead the NFL with 4.4 sacks per game
- Bengals allow 2.0 sacks per game (22nd in the league)
- Pressure could disrupt Bengals’ offensive rhythm and limit big plays
The Giants’ formidable pass rush poses a significant threat to the Bengals’ offensive efficiency. Constant pressure on Joe Burrow could lead to hurried throws, sacks, and potential turnovers, all of which can stall drives and keep the score down.
Offensive Line Struggles
- Bengals: 5.98% sack rate (22nd in NFL)
- Giants: 6.28% sack rate (24th in NFL)
Both teams have shown vulnerability in protecting their quarterbacks. This mutual weakness could lead to a game dominated by defensive fronts, resulting in more clock-running plays and fewer scoring opportunities.
Giants’ Offensive Limitations
- Giants average just 17.8 points per game
- Potential absence of starting RB Devin Singletary
- Run game averaging only 103 yards on 3.9 YPC
The Giants’ offensive struggles, particularly in the running game, could lead to a conservative, clock-controlling approach. With Singletary potentially out, they may struggle even more to move the ball consistently, leading to lower-scoring possessions.
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Key Factors
Bengals’ Defensive Improvement: While Cincinnati’s defense has been a weak point (29.0 PPG allowed), they’ve shown flashes of improvement. Against a struggling Giants offense, they might find more success, keeping the overall score lower.
Time of Possession Battle: The Giants average 32:21 in time of possession compared to the Bengals’ 28:47. This ball-control approach by New York could limit overall possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams.
Red Zone Inefficiency: While the Bengals excel in the red zone (68.75% TD rate), the Giants struggle (43.75% TD rate). This disparity could lead to more field goals instead of touchdowns, keeping the total score under 47.
The Bottom Line
While the Bengals have shown offensive firepower recently, the combination of the Giants’ elite pass rush, both teams’ offensive line issues, and the potential for a conservative game plan from New York points towards a lower-scoring contest. The Giants’ ability to control the clock and their defensive pressure could disrupt the Bengals’ rhythm, while their own offensive limitations may prevent them from fully capitalizing on scoring opportunities.
Prediction: Bengals 23, Giants 20 (Total: 43)
Best Bet: Under 47 (-110)
In what could be a defensive struggle with limited big plays, the Under 47 looks appealing. While the Bengals have the potential to explode offensively, the Giants’ pass rush and ball-control offense should do enough to keep this game under the total. Bettors should watch for any pre-game injury news, particularly regarding the Giants’ running back situation, which could further solidify the case for the Under.
