Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions MNF Total Pick

Seattle Seahawks (3-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
When: Monday, September 30th, 8:15PM ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

Point Spread: Sea +4/Det -4
Total: 47

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Line Movement

The line opened at Detroit -6 and has been bet down to -4. Only 40% of the general betting public are backing the Seahawks, so this was sharp money that moved the spread.

The Seahawks have scored 73 points this season, while allowing only 43 to their opponents. The Lions have scored 62 and allowed 53. While this may look like Seattle is a high scoring team with a good defense, it’s simply not true. We have to look at opponents. In this case, the Hawks have beaten a bad Broncos team at home, a really bad Patriots team and a depleted Dolphins team with numerous injuries. The numbers look great, but not so impressive when you consider they beat up a bunch of cupcakes. On the flip side, the Lions battled a feisty (and healthy) Rams team into overtime, lost to a Buccaneers team which has turned out better than most thought and put up 20 points against the Arizona Cardinals, who have a bad defense.

So, what does all of this mean? I don’t now! I’m betting the total!

Betting Trends

The Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
Detroit is 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 home games
Detroit is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite
The Lions are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their last 3 games versus the Seahawks
The Seahawks are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. Detroit and 7-3 ATS in those games

Kevin West’s Pick to Cover the Spread

I don’t have a clue which team will cover this four-point spread. What I do know is both offenses have shown signs of dysfunction and both defenses are playing better than I expected. I’ve got this game landing around 44-46 points, which is a full point lower than tonight’s posted total of 47. I’m betting the UNDER 47.