Seattle Seahawks 2024 Season Win Total Prediction

A Sad Season for Seattle Seahawks Fans

It is with a heavy heart that I write this Regular Season Win recommendation for the 2024 NFL season. I’ve looked at the chess board from every angle and I just don’t see a path to eight wins for my boys, the Seattle Seahawks. (How did the Seahawks become the favorite team of a kid from Jersey? Same way the Orioles did. Stories for another time.)

After winning nine games last year and failing to make the playoffs, the books have set Seattle’s number at 7′, meaning they expect a drop-off in production from a team with an aging quarterback and a rookie head coach.

It’s time to grab a sheet of paper and my pens and make an estimate of wins and losses on the Seahawks schedule, game by game.
Green W’s next to games they win.
Red L’s next to the ones they lose.

I’m looking for a split in the first two games with Denver at home and New England on the road. They’re small Favs at home in week one and will be small Dogs on the road in week two.
Both games are losable, so I’ll mark this part of the schedule down as a 1-1 split, a win at home in the season opener, and a loss on the road in game number two.
I have them at 0-2 in their next two games. They’ll be overmatched at home against Miami and on the road against Detroit.

Game five finds them playing host to the New York Giants, who I also expect to stink this year (watch for my column on the Giants Regular Season Wins coming later this week.)
I’ll give Seattle a win in this one.

Now they hit a tough stretch: San Fran at home, Atlanta on the road, and Buffalo at home.

San Fran had an easy sweep last year, with both wins coming by double digits, 18 points in Seattle and 12 points in San Francisco.

Last time they saw Atlanta was 2022, when the Hawks lost to them at home in Seattle.

Last time they saw Josh Allen and Buffalo was back in 2020, when they surrendered 44 points and lost by double digits.

The Atlanta and Buffalo games aren’t really relevant to this year’s teams due to personnel changes, but the 2024 Falcons and Bills are a grade above this year’s version of the Seahawks.

I have them at 0-3 in this part of the season.
Preseason rankings have all three teams ranked above Seattle (by at least two games in Regular Season Win projections.) They’re not going to beat San Fran, and I highly doubt they’re going to beat Atlanta on the road.
I give them a very slight chance to beat Buffalo because they get to play the Bills at home, but the edge still goes to Buffalo.

It’s somewhere around this point in the season that I expect Geno Smith to be benched.
Do I have any concerns that his backup may come in and give the team a lift?
His backup is Sam Howell.
Sam 4-13-as-a-starter-last-year Howell.
So, no. Zero concerns when Smith gets benched.
Or injured.

Next, they get the Rams at home in Seattle.
LA swept Seattle last year. They might get a sweep again this year but I’ll mark this series as a split, 1-1, with Seattle winning at home and losing on the road.

Next up is another loss to San Fran.

That’s followed by the only easy stretch in their schedule, home against Arizona, on the road at the New York Jets, and Arizona on the road.

Seattle swept the Cardinals last year, but I expect Az to be much improved in Jonathan Gannon’s second year as head coach, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
I rate the two games with the Cardinals as a split, 1-1.
The Jets game could go either way, but I’ll give the Jets the edge at home.

The Seahawks next three games have them facing the NFC North: Green Bay and Minnesota at home, Chicago on the road.
Preseason rankings have both Green Bay and Chicago ranked comfortably above Seattle, and Minnesota is slightly below them.
I have them splitting the first two, losing to Green Bay and winning vs. Minnesota at home in Seattle. I have the Chicago game marked as a loss on the road.

In their final game they’re playing on the road at the Rams and I have that marked as a loss.

Time to tally up the expected record.

Vs Denver W
At New England L
Vs Miami L
At Detroit L
Vs New York Giants W
Vs San Fran L
At Atlanta L
Vs Buffalo L
Vs LAR W
At SF L
Vs Arizona W
At New York Jets L
At Arizona L
Vs Green Bay L
Vs Minnesota W
At Chicago L
At LAR L
What do I see?
Only five green W’s.
Five??!!
I could be off by TWO games and still get a win with Under 7′.
I have to be off by THREE games to lose my bet.

Oh yeah, I’m liking the Under here.

Some more low lights for the 2024 outlook and reasons to like the Under:

In 2023, Seattle won only two games in their division.

In 2024, they have eight games against playoff teams from last year.

Getting swept by the 49ers is inevitable barring multiple major injuries to San Fran.

Bobby Wagner is gone.

Pete Carroll is gone.
The Seahawks replaced the most experienced head coach in the league with a rookie head coach, Mike McDonald.
McDonald was Baltimore’s defensive coordinator for the past two seasons.
Yes, the Ravens had the best defense in the league last year but McDonald had the players to pull that off in Baltimore. He doesn’t in Seattle. Not yet anyway.

And let’s be honest – Geno Smith peaked in 2022.
Last year, as the season wore on, he wore out.
His QBR rating dropped from an average of 62.8 over his first seven games to just 48.9 in his last eight games. And he’s another year older now (during the Hall of Fame game the ticker at the bottom of the screen said Gino’s dealing with hip and knee injuries, and he hasn’t even been hit yet! At 33 years old he’s the third oldest starting QB in the league.)

I just can’t see eight wins for this team, even with my bias as fan jading my view and wanting me to see more wins than losses.
And this isn’t one of those win-win situations that bettors talk about, where if the wager wins they’re happy because they won money and if it loses they’re happy because their favorite team won a bunch of games. Even IF the Seahawks win eight games, it’s not going to be enough for them to make the playoffs, not in their division, not in their conference. Losing the bet would be tolerable if the Seahawks made the postseason but that’s not going to be the case here.
This bet isn’t win-win, it’s win or lose.

If you agree with my analysis, where do you want to buy this play? Most houses are at the +115 to +120 range. But our sponsor Bookmaker must have got hit with some money on the Over because they’re offering a terrific price, 7′ Under +126.

In my article about choosing a team to bet for Regular Season Wins I suggested using your favorite team. I wanted to look at the Seahawks, but I kept hearing Wednesday Addams, “Be afraid. Be very afraid.”
Now that I looked, I wish I hadn’t.
But I did.
And so, heavy heart, hate to do it, feel like Benedict Arnold, yada yada yada, my final Regular Season Wins play for this season is a play on Seattle.
Unfortunately, on the Under. 7′, +126
“Vae victis.” Woe to the Republic.